Different Approaches to the Modelling of COVID-19

Meyer, John-Jules; Lima, M B S; Espitia, C. C.; Longo, Flávia Vitor; Laiate, Beatriz; Gois, A. N.; Kunz, C. F. D.

doi:10.5540/tcam.2021.022.04.00515

Cited by 2 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…A comparison with and a subsequent adaptation to reallife data, as undertaken by Meyer et al (2021), can be quite useful in testing values, decisions, policies. Of course, when a model is forced to agree with real-life information, there is always a risk of ''spoiling'' simulations, since models demand empirical as well as heuristic evaluations and corrections.…”

Section: A Comparison Of Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relevant mathematical modelling efforts for understanding COVID-19 dynamics: an educational challenge

Meyer

Lima

2022

ZDM Mathematics Education

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The purpose of the work described in this paper is to emphasize the importance of using mathematical models and mathematical modelling in order to be able to understand and to learn possible behaviours in epidemic situations such as that of the COVID-19 pandemic, besides suggesting modelling techniques with which to evaluate certain sanitary decisions and policies which do, in fact, affect society as a whole. The mathematical tools that are used derive from nonlinear systems of difference equations (possibly viable at a high school level, using spreadsheets or adequate software) as well as nonlinear systems of ordinary differential equations (therefore using mathematical tools and software well within the reach of undergraduate students of many courses). This purpose is accomplished by motivating students and learners to study existing SIR-type models and modifying them in order to have a fully understandable translation of dynamics for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in several different realistic scenarios, that is to say, situations that consider social distancing policies, widespread vaccination programmes, as well as possible and even probable results when in the presence of negationist postures and attitudes. Several modelling choices referring to real-life situations are shown and explored. These models are analysed and discussed, implicitly proposing similar attitudes and evaluations in learning environments. Conclusions are drawn, stimulating further work using the described mathematical tools and resources.

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Section: A Comparison Of Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relevant mathematical modelling efforts for understanding COVID-19 dynamics: an educational challenge

Meyer

Lima

2022

ZDM Mathematics Education

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“…Even after excluding some parameters of the SCEAIRD model proposed by [11], we obtained a curve that well describes the behaviour of the first wave of the pandemic. It is noteworthy that this curve was obtained using only the equations for the original strain and with the hypothesis of reinfection by the same strain of virus.…”

Section: The Original Strainmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…In this section, we initially present a modification of the model proposed by [11], with which it is possible to describe the behaviour of the first wave of COVID-19. We then introduce the first variant of SARS-CoV-2 detected in Brazil, the so-called Gamma variant, and for the description of the epidemiological situation, we present a compartmental diagram, the respective equations and the resulting simulation.…”

Section: Mathematical Models and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a previous work [11] we presented several models and simulations in order to describe the behaviour of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. For these models, we selected the most complete model and we used it as a basis for this paper.…”

Section: The Original Strainmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• D(t): indicating those whose death has been registered. Some modifications were introduced in the model proposed in [11]: exclusion of the parameter related to the percentage of individuals who abandoned the confinement and recovery and death rates of asymptomatic individuals, because we do not have enough information. With these changes, we have the following SCEAIRD model: Based on the schematic model presented in Figure 1, we have the parameters needed to describe the dynamics:…”

Section: The Original Strainmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Mathematical models and simulations of different scenarios of COVID-19 in Brazil

Lima

Silva²,

Meyer³

2023

RMTA

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In this paper, we develop successive mathematical models for describing the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Brazil, including the origi[1]nal strain, the two variants with the highest circulation (Gamma and Delta variants) and population vaccination. We started with a a simple initial model and using mathematical modelling techniques and the Heaviside step function, we improved it according to the necessities of describing the disease’s behaviour, both considering the new variants or vaccination. In all cases, we performed computer simulations and compared the obtained curve with real data from the active cases, which reinforced the model’s efficiency in describing the behaviour of the pandemic and highlighted the importance of population vaccination in describing the dynam[1]ics of the infections and reducing cases.

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Different Approaches to the Modelling of COVID-19

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

Relevant mathematical modelling efforts for understanding COVID-19 dynamics: an educational challenge

Relevant mathematical modelling efforts for understanding COVID-19 dynamics: an educational challenge

Mathematical models and simulations of different scenarios of COVID-19 in Brazil

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