Differential changes in precipitation and runoff discharge during 1958–2017 in the headwater region of Yellow River of China

Abstract

Maintenance of steady streamflow is a critical attribute of the continental river systems for safeguarding downstream ecosystems and agricultural production. Global climate change imposes a potential risk to water supply from the headwater by changing the magnitude and frequency of precipitation and evapotranspiration in the region. To determine if and to what extent the recent climate changes affected streamflow in major river systems, we examined the pattern of temporal variations in precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and changes in runoff discharge during 1958-2017 in the headwater region of the Yellow River in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We identified 1989 as the turning point for a statistically significant 14% reduction in streamflow discharge (P < 0.05) for the period 1989-2017 compared with 1958-1988, approximately coinciding with changes in the monthly distribution but not the interannual variations of precipitation, and detected a mismatch between precipitation and runoff after 2000. Both annual precipitation and runoff discharge displayed fourand eight-year cyclic patterns of changes for the period 1958-1988, and a six-year cyclic pattern of changes for the period 1989-2017, with two intensified two-year cyclic patterns in the changes of precipitation and a three-year cyclic pattern in the change of runoff further detected for the later period. Our results indicate that the temporal changes in runoff are not strictly consistent with the temporal variations of precipitation in the headwater region of Yellow River during the period 1958-2017. In particular, a full recovery in annual precipitation was not reflected in a full recovery in runoff toward the end of the study period. While a review of literature yielded no apparent evidence of raised evapotranspiration in the region due to recent warming, we draw attention to increased local retention of rainwater as a possible explanation of differential changes in precipitation and runoff.

Xinanjiang-based interval forecasting model for daily streamflow considering climate change impacts

“…The headwater region of the Yellow River Basin (HRYRB) usually refers to the upstream of Tangnaihai hydrological station located on the mainstream of the Yellow River (Li et al, 2008). This area's multi-year average annual streamflow accounts for approximately one-third of the river's total, making it an essential runoff-producing area in the Yellow River Basin (Fan et al, 2022;Hou et al, 2020). Tangnaihai station serves as the inflow control station of Longyangxia Reservoir, the backbone reservoir, and the only multi-year regulating reservoir on the Yellow River mainstream.…”

Changes in Runoff in the Source Region of the Yellow River Basin Based on CMIP6 Data under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality

“…The ecosystem in the region is fragile and sensitive to changes in climate and runoff. Recently, in the source region, extreme hydrological events such as rainstorms and floods have become more frequent, but annual runoff has diminished [8][9][10][11][12]. For example, summer precipitation broke the historical maximum value in Guoluo State in Qinghai Province in 2020 and caused flooding along the Yellow River.…”

How do GPM and TRMM precipitation products perform in alpine regions?

“…Precipitation gauge-derived datasets are commonly used to verify and calibrate precipitation datasets obtained from remote sensing inversion and model simulation. However, most national meteorological stations are located in lower regions in mountain regions and are installed to meet the practical needs of national meteorological services rather than specific research requirements (Sevruk, 1997;Zhang et al, 2019;Hou et al, 2020). Furthermore, the national meteorological stations in alpine mountains with higher elevations are uneven or sparse, and field observations are hindered by harsh living conditions and insufficient funds.…”