Discovering plausible energy and economic futures under global change using multidimensional scenario discovery

Gerst, Michael D.; Wang, P.; Borsuk, Mark E.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.001

Cited by 63 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Kwakkel et al [84] apply dynamic Scenario Discovery to material scarcity. Gerst et al [86] apply multi-dimensional Scenario Discovery to an energy transition case.…”

Section: Scenario Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

2013

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Abstract:There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with robustness and adaptive plans have begun to appear, but the literature is fragmented. The papers appear in disparate journals, and deal with a wide variety of policy domains. This paper (1) describes and compares a family of related conceptual approaches to designing a sustainable plan, and (2) describes several computational tools supporting these approaches. The conceptual approaches all have their roots in an approach to longterm planning called Assumption-Based Planning. Guiding principles for the design of a sustainable adaptive plan are: explore a wide variety of relevant uncertainties, connect short-term targets to long-term goals over time, commit to short-term actions while keeping options open, and continuously monitor the world and take actions if necessary. A key computational tool across the conceptual approaches is a fast, simple (policy analysis) model that is used to make large numbers of runs, in order to explore the full range of uncertainties and to identify situations in which the plan would fail. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2013, 5 956

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“…Kwakkel et al [84] apply dynamic Scenario Discovery to material scarcity. Gerst et al [86] apply multi-dimensional Scenario Discovery to an energy transition case.…”

Section: Scenario Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Results of interest can be identified based on the performance of candidate plans, but other criteria can also be used. Scenario Discovery has recently been extended to cope with dynamics over time [84] and multiple outcomes of interest [86].…”

Section: Scenario Discoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

2013

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“…There appear to be a number of promising agent-based tools in development that could be applied for exploring decarbonisation pathways for climate stabilisation (e.g. [70] and [71]) but most published examples deal with sub-sectors of the energy economy and agent-based approaches have yet to scale fully to whole system analysis [72].…”

Section: Towards An Improved Representation Of Actors and Behaviour Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Actors behaving badly: Exploring the modelling of non-optimal behaviour in energy transitions

2017

Energy Strategy Reviews

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There are real political and social barriers to climate mitigation that arise from multiactor dynamics and micro-economic decisions. Exploratory analysis that captures key uncertainties in the energy system, including behaviour, is crucial for policy design aimed at achieving ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets. This paper explores the case for developing policy assessments that include non-optimal behaviour in energy systems modelling. A stochastic system dynamic model of the energy system that features multiple actors with differentiated behaviours is used to investigate energy transition pathways that deviate from strict economic rationality. The results illustrate the risks of basing GHG reduction strategies on analysis that overlooks key insights into decision making from fields such as behavioural economics and political science. KeywordsEnergy systems modeling; climate policy; decarbonization; behavioral economics; uncertainty; Highlights• Dynamic stochastic model of energy transitions used to explore actor behaviour • Uncertainty analysis explores impact of sub-optimal actor choices and policies • Behaviour could be as significant as the techno-economic drivers of transitions • Climate targets difficult to achieve without idealised assumptions about behaviour • Energy systems modelling must expand consideration of socio-political factors

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“…Although scenario discovery can be applied on its own [15,35,36], it is also the analytical core of Robust Decision Making [13,[37][38][39]. Robust decision-making is a model-based decision support approach for the development of robust policies.…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.Keywords: scenario discovery, deep uncertainty, container shipping, global freight logistics IntroductionIn the past couple of decades, changes in the global container transport system have happened very rapidly. These changes have affected virtually all actors in the system, but the biggest impact has been on maritime ports. Ports have to be adaptive and resilient in responding to the changes in the global container shipping system. In today's globalized economy, ports need to ensure that they can function robustly, both as a transshipment node and as a gateway node for global trade flows. A failure to respond to changes in a timely manner often results in negative consequences for the port itself, as well as the economy of the region or country to which the port belongs. For example, the recent congestion at ports on the west coast of the US resulted in estimated damages for the economy of roughly 7 billion US dollar [1].Preparing a port for a wide range of possible future developments is a profound challenge. The global container shipping system is composed of many elements, with strong interdependencies. Often, small changes cascade quickly through the system, potentially resulting in substantial changes somewhere quite far removed from the initial small change. For example, recently Ultra Large Carrier Vessels have entered the market. Liner shipping companies have started to form alliances to pursue economies of scale. This in turn affects the frequency of port calls, the port rotation schedule, and the container volumes loaded and unloaded at each port. Changes not only take place on the seaside. Developments in the hinterland, such as the construction of new infrastructures such as road, railways, and intermodal facilities affect transport cost.The ongoing changes on both the seaside and the land size of seaports change the spatial flow of containers globally. The operation of the Trans-Siberian railways is an example of the importance of hinterland infrastructure on global container flows through ports [2]. A similar © 2016 Man...

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Discovering plausible energy and economic futures under global change using multidimensional scenario discovery

Cited by 63 publications

References 24 publications

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Actors behaving badly: Exploring the modelling of non-optimal behaviour in energy transitions

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

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