Discovery of spatial-temporal causal interactions between thermal and methane anomalies associated with the Wenchuan earthquake

Meng, Qingyan; Zhang, Ying

doi:10.1140/epjst/e2020-000252-9

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…It should be noted that atmospheric parameters are influenced by many external factors. Strong meteorological phenomena, geological activities, and disasters can lead to significant variation of atmospheric parameters [42,43,48,49]. The air temperature at the top isobaric surface in Nima rises again in part of the time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric Anomaly Analysis Related to Ms > 6.0 Earthquakes in China during 2020–2021

Xu¹,

Chen²,

Yu³

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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The attention towards links of atmospheric parameter variation and earthquakes has increased exponentially by utilizing new methods and more accurate observations. Persistent research makes it possible to gain insight into the precursor mechanism of earthquakes. In this paper, we studied the universality of detecting atmospheric anomalies associated with earthquakes based on tidal force fluctuation in China for earthquakes of Ms > 6.0, and explored the influence of tidal force on tectonic stress. The data of air temperature, geopotential height, ozone mixing ratio, and relative humidity from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were analyzed to reveal the spatiotemporal variation of atmospheric anomalies at multiple isobaric surfaces. Furthermore, the coupling of atmospheric parameters was investigated. The results showed that continuous solicitation exerted by tidal forces could change the strength of tectonic stress that causes earthquakes. The evolution pattern of air temperature, geopotential height, and relative humidity could be supported by atmospheric thermal vertical diffusion, while the anomalies of ozone mixing ratio was not evident. This verified the feasibility of detecting multi-parameter atmospheric anomalies associated with earthquakes based on tidal force fluctuation. Our results provide more evidence for understanding the atmospheric precursor characteristics of earthquakes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric Anomaly Analysis Related to Ms > 6.0 Earthquakes in China during 2020–2021

Xu¹,

Chen²,

Yu³

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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“…It is concluded that, compared to thermal infrared data, air temperature data provided by NCEP have a huge advantage for monitoring the pre-earthquake temperature variation in cloudy areas. Strong cooling weather such as heavy rainfall and blizzard [41], however, can also hide the thermal anomalies, and how to extract the thermal anomalies before earthquakes under such weather needs further study. There is another huge limitation for the TFFA, because the key point of this method is the variation of tidal force potential at the hypocenter, but the information about the hypocenter is known only after the earthquake occurs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature Variations in Multiple Air Layers before the Mw 6.2 2014 Ludian Earthquake, Yunnan, China

et al. 2021

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On 3 August 2014, an Mw 6.2 earthquake occurred in Ludian, Yunnan Province, China (27.245° N 103.427° E). This damaging earthquake caused approximately 400 fatalities, 1800 injuries, and the destruction of at least 12,000 houses. Using air temperature data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the tidal force fluctuant analysis (TFFA) method, we derive the temperature variations in multiple air layers between before and after the Ludian earthquake. In the spatial range of 30° × 30° (12°–42° N, 88°–118° E) of China, a thermal anomaly appeared only on or near the epicenter before earthquake, and air was heated from the land, then uplifted by a heat flux, and then cooled and dissipated upon rising. With the approaching earthquake, the duration and range of the thermal anomaly during each tidal cycle was found to increase, and the amplitude of the thermal anomaly varied with the tidal force potential: air temperature was found to rise during the negative phase of the tidal force potential, to reach peak at its trough, and to attenuate when the tidal force potential was rising again. A significance test supports the hypothesis that the thermal anomalies are physically related to Ludian earthquakes rather than being coincidences. Based on these results, we argue that the change of air temperature could reflect the stress changes modulated under the tidal force. Moreover, unlike the thermal infrared remote sensing data, the air temperature data provided by NCEP are not affected by clouds, so it has a clear advantage for monitoring the pre-earthquake temperature variation in cloudy areas.

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“…(11) Meng and Zhang [61] explore the potential relationship between thermal and methane anomalies associated to the 12, May 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, China, using data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the AQUA satellite. The authors identify anomaly durations of c. 10-15 days for each signal, with thermal anomalies (5-14 May) occurring before the methane anomalies (12-28 May).…”

Section: Review and Critique Of Each Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yan et al [53] compared the DEMETER data to ground station data and observed some synchronicity, which could help in the future to combine multi-source data to potentially obtain more robust signals, as recommended by Qin et al [56] and Zhuang et al [54], in the GEFS spirit. In other ground-based and satellite-based cases [56][57][58]61,[63][64][65][66][67], since no systematic exploration was done and/or no test on independent data was performed, one cannot infer whether non-seismic precursors exist or are just random fluctuations that seem to be significant as a result of some data selection bias and some kind of over-fitting. Moreover, despite the many graphs of data provided, quantitative analyses remain rare.…”

Section: Common Pitfalls Of Pattern Recognition In Earthquake Prediction Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Importantly, the GEFS is initiating a new and much needed phase of cross-disciplinary collaboration [8,50]. The signals addressed in the GEFS issue include: ground-based geoelectric and magnetic anomalies [51][52][53][54][55], radon activity [56], thermal infrared anomalies [57][58][59][60] and longwave radiation [57], combined thermal and gas anomalies [61], (sub)ionospheric signals [53,62,63], total electron content [57], groundwater changes [56,64], precipitation [65], low-frequency "stress waves" [66], solar activity coupling [67], as well as combinations of various signals due to lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling [56,57] and comparisons of non-seismic signals to seismic precursors [54,68]. The introductory article of this volume [69] provides a review of the solid-state processes that are proposed to form the basis of the non-seismic precursors and others (in the same volume [70]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS): The challenges ahead

Mignan

Ouillon

Sornette

et al. 2021

Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top.

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We conclude this special issue on the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) by briefly reviewing and analyzing the claims of non-seismic precursors made in the present volume, and by reflecting on the current limitations and future directions to take. We find that most studies presented in this special volume, taken individually, do not provide strong enough evidence of non-seismic precursors to large earthquakes. The majority of the presented results are hampered by the fact that the task at hand is susceptible to potential biases in data selection and possible overfitting. The most encouraging results are obtained for ground-based geoelectric signals, although the probability gain is likely small compared to an earthquake clustering baseline. The only systematic search on satellite data available so far, those of the DEMETER mission, did not find a robust precursory pattern. The conclusion that we can draw is that the overall absence of convincing evidence is likely due to a deficit in systematically applying robust statistical methods and in integrating scientific knowledge of different fields. Most authors are specialists of their field while the study of earthquake precursors requires a system approach combined with the knowledge of many specific characteristics of seismicity. Relating non-seismic precursors to earthquakes remains a challenging multidisciplinary field of investigation. The plausibility of these precursors predicted by models of lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling, together with the suggestive evidence collected here, call for further investigations. The primary goal of the GEFS is thus to build a global database of candidate signals, which could potentially improve earthquake predictability (if the weak signals observed are real and false positives sufficiently uncorrelated between different data sources). Such a stacking of disparate and voluminous data will require big data storage and machine learning pipelines, which has become feasible only recently. This special issue compiled an eclectic list of non-seismic precursor candidates, which is in itself a valuable source of information for seismologists, geophysicists and other scientists who may not be familiar with such types of investigations. It also forms the foundation for a coherent, multi-disciplinary collaboration on earthquake prediction.

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Discovery of spatial-temporal causal interactions between thermal and methane anomalies associated with the Wenchuan earthquake

Cited by 18 publications

References 19 publications

Atmospheric Anomaly Analysis Related to Ms > 6.0 Earthquakes in China during 2020–2021

Atmospheric Anomaly Analysis Related to Ms > 6.0 Earthquakes in China during 2020–2021

Temperature Variations in Multiple Air Layers before the Mw 6.2 2014 Ludian Earthquake, Yunnan, China

Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS): The challenges ahead

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