Discrete Model of Housing Construction in the Russian Federation

Abstract

The paper provides a brief analysis of works on the application of mathematical modeling methods in housing construction. Based on statistical information on the volume of housing commissioned in Russia for 2000–2020. three variants of a discrete model of autoregressive type of dynamics of this indicator are formed by the methods of least squares, moduli and anti-robust estimation, for each of them the values of the accepted criteria of adequacy are given. These are the criteria for multiple determination (only for the least squares method), the average relative error of approximation and the generalized criterion for the consistency of behavior. The latter criterion allows you to assess the extent to which the behavior of the calculated and actual values of the dependent variable in the model is consistent. In accordance with the values of the criteria for further practical use, a variant is proposed, the parameters of which are estimated using the method of least modules.