Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague

Siuda, Fabian; Sunde, Uwe

doi:10.1007/s10887-020-09185-4

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…This demographic transition to a population characterized by lower birth rates likely helped to preserve the high levels of per capita incomes and contributed to further economic development of certain parts of Europe, enabling it to escape the "Malthusian trap" in the following centuries (Pamuk 2007). Siuda and Sunde (2021) confirm the pandemic's effect on the accelerated demographic transition empirically, as they find that greater pandemic mortality was associated with an earlier onset of the demographic transition across the various regions of Germany.…”

Section: The Black Deathmentioning

confidence: 86%

Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence

Uher

2022

EconDisCliCha

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If economists have largely failed to predict or prevent the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the more disastrous economic collapse associated with the pandemic of 2020, what else is the profession missing? This is the question that motivates this survey. Specifically, we want to highlight four catastrophic risks – i.e., risks that can potentially result in global catastrophes of a much larger magnitude than either of the 2008 or 2020 events. The four risks we examine here are: Space weather and solar flares, super-volcanic eruptions, high-mortality pandemics, and misaligned artificial intelligence. All four have a non-trivial probability of occurring and all four can lead to a catastrophe, possibly not very different from human extinction. Inevitably, and fortunately, these catastrophic events have not yet occurred, so the literature investigating them is by necessity more speculative and less grounded in empirical observations. Nevertheless, that does not make these risks any less real. This survey is motivated by the belief that economists can and should be thinking about these risks more systematically, so that we can devise the appropriate ways to prevent them or ameliorate their potential impacts.

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Section: The Black Deathmentioning

confidence: 86%

Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence

Uher

2022

EconDisCliCha

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“…Figure A.3). 22 Other studies are: ; Siuda and Sunde (2017); Alfani and Percoco (2019). 23 The term quarantine was first used in Ragusa in Sicily in 1377 (Gensini et al, 2004).…”

Section: The Epidemiological Shockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the Black Death (1347-1352) bubonic plague remained endemic in Europe for the next 250 years (Biraben, 1975;. These outbreaks are studied by Biraben (1975) and recently by Siuda and Sunde (2017) and .…”

Section: The Black Death As Bubonic Plaguementioning

confidence: 99%

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Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death

2019

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“…To enlighten this unknown and to improve digital models of waterways and inland navigation is not only fundamental for economic history and archaeology (McCormick, 2012), but also e.g. for advanced modelling of the spread of diseases such as plague along navigable rivers in pre-modern Europe (Siuda & Sunde, 2021;Yue et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling pre-modern flow distances of inland waterways – a GIS study in southern Germany

Werther

Menn

Schmidt

et al. 2021

Virtual archaeol. rev.

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Rivers form major traffic arteries in pre-modern Central Europe and accurate regional to supra-regional network models of inland navigation are crucial for economic history. However, navigation distances have hitherto been based on modern flow distances, which could be a significant source of error due to modern changes in flow distance and channel pattern. Here, we use a systematic comparison of vectorized old maps, which enlighten the fluvial landscape before most of the large-scale river engineering took place, and modern opensource geodata to deduce change ratios of flow distance and channel patterns. The river courses have been vectorised, edited and divided into comparable grid units. Based on the thalweg, meandering and braided/anabranching river sections have been identified and various ratios have been calculated in order to detect changes in length and channel patterns. Our large-scale analytical approach and Geographic Information System (GIS) workflow are transferable to other rivers in order to deduce change ratios on a European scale. The 19th century flow distance is suitable to model pre-modern navigation distances. As a case study, we have used our approach to reconstruct changes of flow pattern, flow distance and subsequent changes in navigation distance and transportation time for the rivers Altmühl, Danube, Main, Regnitz, Rednitz, Franconian and Swabian Rezat (Southern Germany). The change ratio is rather heterogeneous with length and travel time changes of the main channel up to 24% and an extensive transformation of channel morphology in many river sections. Based on published travel time data, we have modelled the effect of our change ratios. Shipping between the commercial hubs Ulm and Regensburg, to give an example, was up to 5 days longer based on pre-modern distances. This is highly significant and underlines the necessity for river-specific correction values to model supra-regional networks of pre-modern inland waterways and navigation with higher precision.Highlights:<ul><li>Systematic comparison of old maps and modern geodata to deduce river-specific length correction values to improve supra-regional network models of pre-modern inland navigation.</li><li>Large-scale analytical approach and transferable GIS workflow for flow distance reconstruction with case studies in Southern Germany.</li><li>Length changes of navigated fairways result in pre-modern period travel times up to 24% higher in corrected models.</li></ul>

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Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague

Cited by 23 publications

References 63 publications

Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence

Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence

Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death

Modelling pre-modern flow distances of inland waterways – a GIS study in southern Germany

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