Disrupted seasonal biology impacts health, food security and ecosystems

Stevenson, Tyler J.; Visser, Marcel E.; Arnold, Walter; Barrett, Perry; Biello, Stephany M.; Dawson, Alistair; Denlinger, David L.; Dominoni, Davide M.; Ebling, Francis J. P.; Elton, Sarah; Evans, N. J.; Ferguson, Heather M.; Foster, Russell G.; Hau, Michaela; Haydon, Daniel T.; Hazlerigg, David G.; Heideman, Paul D.; Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Jonsson, N.N.; Kronfeld‐Schor, Noga; Kumar, Vinod; Lincoln, G. A.; MacLeod, Ross; Martín, Samuel; Martinez, Micaela E; Nelson, Randy J.; Reed, Thomas E.; Robinson, Julia; Röck, Daniel; Schwartz, William J.; Steffan‐Dewenter, Ingolf; Tauber, Eran; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Umstätter, Christina; Yoshimura, Takashi; Helm, Barbara

doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.1453

Cited by 144 publications

(123 citation statements)

References 115 publications

(171 reference statements)

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“…Our present data open new possibilities for extensive global analyses, which could disentangle contributions of different seasonal drivers to a broad range of infectious diseases. There is a pressing need for such knowledge because global seasonality is becoming rapidly modified and disrupted through human action, with potentially far-reaching implications for infectious disease transmission (45).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization

Bakker

Martinez

Helm

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Public health surveillance systems are important for tracking disease dynamics. In recent years, social and real-time digital data sources have provided new means of studying disease transmission. Such affordable and accessible data have the potential to offer new insights into disease epidemiology at national and international scales. We used the extensive information repository Google Trends to examine the digital epidemiology of a common childhood disease, chicken pox, caused by varicella zoster virus (VZV), over an 11-y period. We (i) report robust seasonal information-seeking behavior for chicken pox using Google data from 36 countries, (ii) validate Google data using clinical chicken pox cases, (iii) demonstrate that Google data can be used to identify recurrent seasonal outbreaks and forecast their magnitude and seasonal timing, and (iv) reveal that VZV immunization significantly dampened seasonal cycles in informationseeking behavior. Our findings provide strong evidence that VZV transmission is seasonal and that seasonal peaks show remarkable latitudinal variation. We attribute the dampened seasonal cycles in chicken pox information-seeking behavior to VZV vaccine-induced reduction of seasonal transmission. These data and the methodological approaches provide a way to track the global burden of childhood disease and illustrate population-level effects of immunization. The global latitudinal patterns in outbreak seasonality could direct future studies of environmental and physiological drivers of disease transmission.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization

Bakker

Martinez

Helm

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Lastly, the complete ZIKV genome was 23 recovered from the brain of a fetus with microcephaly aborted by an expectant mother 24 infected during the 13 th week of gestation [7], and the CDC reported on two newborns 25 from Brazil with microcephaly who died shortly after birth and two miscarriages, all 26 tested positive for ZIKV [8]. In addition to the epidemiological evidence, newly 27 developed mouse models of ZIKV have demonstrated that ZIKV strains from French…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Although infectious diseases are seasonal, the timing of the high-transmission season can 80 (1) vary among pathogens within a country and (2) vary among countries/regions for a 81 given pathogen [27]. The drivers of DENV, WNV, YFV, and CHIKV seasonality are transmssion-relevant contact rate among hosts/vectors, the density of hosts, and vector 87 abundance [16,21,27].…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The drivers of DENV, WNV, YFV, and CHIKV seasonality are transmssion-relevant contact rate among hosts/vectors, the density of hosts, and vector 87 abundance [16,21,27].…”

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confidence: 99%

“…No official stance on delaying pregnancy has been 57 taken for unexposed women. Problematically, the public is receiving a mixed message, susceptibily to infection, host/vector infectiousness, virus viability, the 86 transmssion-relevant contact rate among hosts/vectors, the density of hosts, and vector 87 abundance [16,21,27]. …”

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Supplemental Information 1: ZIKV R Package Manual

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It has come to light that Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy can result in transplacental transmission to the fetus along with fetal death, congenital microcephaly and/or Central Nervous System (CNS) malformations. There are projected to be > 9, 200, 000 births annually in countries with ongoing ZIKV transmission. In response to the ZIKV threat, options to the full extent of the law" [14]. The CDC has issued recommendations for 54 ZIKV-exposed individuals to delay trying to get pregnant. Exposed women and exposed 55 asymptomatic men are recommended to wait 8 weeks, and men with symptoms are 56 recommended to wait 6 months [15]. No official stance on delaying pregnancy has been 57 taken for unexposed women. Problematically, the public is receiving a mixed message, susceptibily to infection, host/vector infectiousness, virus viability, the 86 transmssion-relevant contact rate among hosts/vectors, the density of hosts, and vector 87 abundance [16,21,27]. 88Aedes aegypti has seasonal variation in its ability to facilitate flavivirus transmission 89 because its abundance and competence as a vector are affected by temperature and 90 rainfall [28,29]. Using data from Puerto Rico-one of the U.S. locations with ongoing cohorts. This is because births are seasonal across human populations, and there is a 100 distinct birth pulse in most countries/regions that varies geographically in its seasonal 101 timing [31,32]. Fig 1b shows the birth seasonality in Puerto Rico, with the birth peak 102 from August-October. Due to birth seasonality, the percent of pregnancies experiencing 103 a specific trimester is not evenly distributed throughout the year (Fig 1d). For any 104 given country, the timing of the seasonal birth pulse, relative to the ZIKV transmission 105 season, will therefore determine the fraction of pregnancies at risk for maternal infection 106 and congenital ZIKV. For example, if a country has a birth pulse where sensitive 107 gestational periods coincide with the ZIKV season, more pregnancies in that country 108 will be at risk than elsewhere. Fortunately, if access to contraceptives and family 109 planning practices are proactively targeted for intervention, then the birth pulse could 110 be intentionally shifted and amplified regionally to minimize the risk of intrauterine 111 ZIKV infection for entire birth cohorts.

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Hamsters as Model Species for Neuroendocrine Studies

Lewis¹,

Ebling²

2018

Model Animals in Neuroendocrinology

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Disrupted seasonal biology impacts health, food security and ecosystems

Cited by 144 publications

References 115 publications

Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization

Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization

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Hamsters as Model Species for Neuroendocrine Studies

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