Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmö City, Sweden

Olsson, Jonas; Pers, Charlotta; Bengtsson, Lisa; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Berg, Peter; Körnich, Heiner

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.03.025

Cited by 15 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Our results on clustering (Figure d) may have implications for extreme events, such as flash floods. The scales chosen in our example reflect realistic spatial (∼10–100 km) and temporal (∼1–3 hr) accumulation intervals (Golding et al, ; Jones et al, ; Kendon et al, ; Olsson et al, ), and our analysis suggests that self‐organization boosts the likelihood of flash floods compared to random spatial organization. While qualitative, this finding should be explored in more detail to decipher, which impact clustering can have on the prediction of extremes, today and in a climate with modified near‐surface temperature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Circling in on Convective Organization

Haerter

Böing

Henneberg

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Cold pools (CPs) contribute to convective organization. However, it is unclear by which mechanisms organization occurs. By using a particle method to track CP gust fronts in large eddy simulations, we characterize the basic collision modes between CPs. Our results show that CP interactions, where three expanding gust fronts force an updraft, are key at triggering new convection. Using this, we conceptualize CP dynamics into a parameter‐free mathematical model: circles expand from initially random points in space. Where two expanding circles collide, a stationary front is formed. However, where three expanding circles enclose a single point, a new expanding circle is seeded. This simple model supports three fundamental features of CP dynamics: precipitation cells constitute a spatially interacting system, CPs come in generations, and scales steadily increase throughout the diurnal cycle. Finally, this model provides a framework for how CPs act to cause convective self‐organization, clustering, and extremes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Circling in on Convective Organization

Haerter

Böing

Henneberg

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Some other studies incorporate specific aspects (e.g., [14] perturbed the physical parameterizations; [15] and [16] addressed initial conditions perturbations). Nevertheless, increasing examples of coupled ensemble atmospheric-hydrological systems are available, where the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is the main input of the hydrological models (e.g., [17][18][19][20][21]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecast of a Highly Localized Convective Event in the Mediterranean

Furnari

Mendicino

Senatore

2020

Water

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The uncertainties that affect hydrometeorological modelling chains can be addressed through ensemble approaches. In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble system was assessed based on the downscaling of all members of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system through the coupled atmospheric-hydrological WRF-Hydro modelling system. An exemplary highly localized convective event that occurred in a morphologically complex area of the southern Italian coast was selected as a case study, evaluating the performance of the system for two consecutive lead times up to the hydrological forecast on a very small (11.4 km2) catchment. The proposed approach accurately downscales the signal provided by the global model, improving up to almost 200% the quantitative forecast of the accumulated rainfall peak in the area affected by the event and supplying clear information about the forecast uncertainty. Some members of the ensemble simulations provide accurate results up to the hydrological scale over the catchment, with unit peak discharge forecasts up to 3 m3∙s−1∙km−2. Overall, the study highlights that for highly localized convective events in coastal Mediterranean catchments, ensemble approaches should be preferred to a classic single-based simulation approach, because they improve the forecast skills and provide spatially distributed information about the forecast uncertainty, which can be particularly useful for operational purposes.

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“…Neighbourhood-processed convection-permitting ensemble forecasts have previously been used in the context of flood forecasting by, for example, Vincendon et al (2011), Golding et al (2016), Hardy et al (2016) and Olsson et al (2017). Processed ensemble forecast information is often presented in terms of probability of exceedance for a given threshold, such as the probability of 1 hr mean rainfall over 30 mmÁhr -1 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is not the absolute worst-case scenario that could occur, both because of the use of the percentile-based approach and because the forecast ensemble may not include the full range of possible scenarios. The approach is similar to that of Olsson et al (2017), although there are two major differences to that study:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A percentile‐based approach to rainfall scenario construction for surface‐water flood forecasts

Böing

Birch

Rabb

et al. 2020

Meteorological Applications

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A novel technique to produce reasonable worst-case rainfall scenarios from ensemble forecasts is presented. This type of scenario is relevant for predicting the risk of localized, intense rainfall events with a duration between 15 min and several hours. Such rainfall events can cause surface-water (pluvial) flooding. Producing useful forecasts of these events at lead times of more than a few hours is challenging due to the precision and accuracy in rainfall intensity, duration and location that is required. The technique described here addresses these challenges by constructing appropriate scenarios using a neighbourhood technique in combination with ensemble forecasting. It is similar to the distance-dependent depth-duration analysis described in earlier studies, but it introduces an additional post-processing step based on probability distribution functions of rainfall accumulation near a location of interest. This additional step makes the reasonable worst-case scenarios less dependent on grid-scale behaviour, and helps to generate scenarios with a consistent interpretation. The method is used to compare forecasts with a lead time of 6-36 hr to radar data for several case studies that occurred in Yorkshire. These comparisons also introduce new techniques to present maps of the reasonable worst-case rainfall accumulation at each location.

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Distance-dependent depth-duration analysis in high-resolution hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting: A case study in Malmö City, Sweden

Cited by 15 publications

References 54 publications

Circling in on Convective Organization

Circling in on Convective Organization

Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecast of a Highly Localized Convective Event in the Mediterranean

A percentile‐based approach to rainfall scenario construction for surface‐water flood forecasts

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