Distribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities

Ng, Man Wo; Szeto, W.Y.; Waller, S. Travis

doi:10.1016/j.trb.2011.03.003

Cited by 48 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In the future, the proposed framework can be extended to consider uncertainties (Ng, Szeto, and Waller 2011;Szeto, Jiang, and Sumalee 2011a;Szeto, Solayappan, and Jiang 2011b), other types of dynamics (e.g. Szeto 2002, 2005;Watling and Cantarella 2013;Szeto 2013;Wong et al 2014), and transit network design decisions (Szeto and Wu 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-dependent transportation network design that considers health cost

Jiang

Szeto

2014

Transportmetrica A: Transport Science

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This paper proposes a bi-level optimisation framework for time-dependent discrete road network design that considers health impacts. A general health cost function is proposed and captured in the framework. The function simultaneously considers the health impacts of road traffic emissions, noise, and accidents due to network expansion. To solve the problem, the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to search the network design solutions of the upper-level problem, while the method of successive averages and the Frank-Wolfe algorithm are adopted to solve the lower-level time-dependent land-use transportation problem. A repairing procedure is proposed to remedy infeasible solutions.A numerical study is set up to illustrate the conflict between maximising consumer surplus and minimising the health cost. This paper also reveals a paradox phenomenon that with an increasing amount of emissions, the health cost decreases. Moreover, the existence of a health inequity between different residential zones is demonstrated. A modified Sioux Falls network is adopted to show the performance of the solution algorithm as well as the effectiveness of the proposed repairing procedure.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-dependent transportation network design that considers health cost

Jiang

Szeto

2014

Transportmetrica A: Transport Science

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“…It should be also mentioned that this assumption has also been frequently used in the literature [33], [34]. In fact, Park [35] investigated the correlation between neighboring links and showed that the correlation between neighboring links generally decreases over time.…”

Section: Appendix Independence and Normality Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Solving the Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problem Under Traffic Congestion

Kim

Ong

Cheong

et al. 2016

IEEE Trans. Intell. Transport. Syst.

102

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This paper proposes a dynamic vehicle routing problem (DVRP) model with nonstationary stochastic travel times under traffic congestion. Depending on the traffic conditions, the travel time between two nodes, particularly in a city, may not be proportional to distance and changes both dynamically and stochastically over time. Considering this environment, we propose a Markov decision process model to solve this problem and adopt a rollout-based approach to the solution, using approximate dynamic programming to avoid the curse of dimensionality. We also investigate how to estimate the probability distribution of travel times of arcs which, reflecting reality, are considered to consist of multiple road segments. Experiments are conducted using a real-world problem faced by Singapore logistics/delivery company and authentic road traffic information.Index Terms-Dynamic vehicle routing problem, approximate dynamic programming, uncertain travel times, rollout algorithm.

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“…These studies focused on the driver's risk-taking behaviour. Ng et al (2011) proposed a methodology to assess travel time reliability under unknown travel time distribution. The method proposed in their study is useful when we do not have enough data to calibrate the travel time distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the value of travel time and of travel time reliability in road networks

Uchida

2014

Transportation Research Part B: Methodological

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This study proposes two network models which simultaneously estimate the value of travel time and of travel time reliability based on the risk-averse driver's route choice behaviour. The first model is formulated as a utility maximization problem under monotonic and separable link travel times, whereas the second model is formulated as a utility maximization problem under non-monotonic and non-separable link travel times. The proposed models have the same structure as a user equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment problem with elastic demand. It is shown that the first model, which addresses independent stochastic capacity, is formulated as an optimization problem with a unique solution and is solved by using an algorithm for a UE traffic assignment problem with fixed demand. The second model, which addresses both stochastic Origin-Destination (O-D) flow and stochastic link capacity, is formulated as a nonlinear complementary problem. O-D demand functions formulated in the proposed models are derived from the utility maximization behaviour of the driver in the network. Therefore, the network models proposed in this study are consistent with those of studies that address the value of travel time and of travel time reliability based on utility maximization behaviour without considering the driver's route choice. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the models presented in this study.Keywords: value of travel time, value of travel time reliability, road network INTRODUCTIONIn light of the need to evaluate travel time reliability in terms of its effect on mobility in transport networks, many studies have developed models that address uncertainties in the network. Uncertainties in the network can be categorized into the three main factors of supply, demand and travel behaviour. Studies on travel time reliability in the network began with those that address stochastic OriginDestination (O-D) demand flow. By assuming O-D demand flow that follows normal distributions, Asakura and Kashiwadani (1991) solved User Equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment problems several times by using a set of O-D demand flows that were sampled from normal distributions for the purpose of estimating travel time reliability. Clark and Watling (2005) proposed an equilibrium model that calculates travel time reliability under stochastic O-D demand flow when that flow follows a Poisson distribution. They employed probit-based Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) for the driver's route choice behaviour. They applied a method proposed by Isserlis (1918) for the purpose of calculating travel time reliability, i.e., variance of stochastic travel time. Nakayama and Takayama (2003) proposed an equilibrium model which assumes that O-D demand flow follows a binomial distribution. UE traffic assignment was employed for expressing the driver's route choice behaviour. They calculated travel time reliability by applying a moment-generating function. Zhou and Chen (2008) proposed an equilibrium model which assumes that O-D demand flow follows a...

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Distribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities

Cited by 48 publications

References 29 publications

Time-dependent transportation network design that considers health cost

Time-dependent transportation network design that considers health cost

Solving the Dynamic Vehicle Routing Problem Under Traffic Congestion

Estimating the value of travel time and of travel time reliability in road networks

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