District-wise estimation of Basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in India in the initial phase

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 was introduced into India by multiple sources generating local clusters and leading to the nationwide spread. A retrospective study has been conducted on the epidemiological features and spatial spread of COVID-19 in India during February 2020-March 2021. For each district, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases were fitted to exponential growth model for the initial phase of the outbreak (the first 7-15 days). From the estimated growth rate, epidemiological parameters like the Basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and epidemic doubling time (s) were determined. Using Q-GIS software, we have generated the all India distribution maps for R 0 and s. COVID-19 spread rapidly covering majority of the districts of India between March and June 2020. As on 1st March 2021, a total of 715 out of 717 districts have been affected. The R 0 range is at par with the global average. A few districts, where outbreaks were caused by migrant workers coming home, intense transmission was recorded R 0 [ 7. We also found that the spread of COVID-19 was not uniform across the different districts of India. The methodology developed in the study can be used by researchers and public health professionals to analyze and study epidemics in future.Keywords COVID-19 Á India Á Basic reproduction number Á Doubling time Á Districts Spat. Inf. Res.

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“…Many countries suffered from several waves of COVID-19 with additional stress, pressure and strain on healthcare systems [4][5][6][7]. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) for COVID-19 was estimated to be in the range of 1.4 to 2.5, [2,[8][9][10] with some studies reporting higher R 0 (e.g., >6) during outbreaks in some areas or regions of the world [11,12]. This variability in the R 0 estimates is due to several factors, including the model used for its estimation, public health interventions to control the pandemic, level of implementation of precautionary measures (e.g., travel restrictions, social distancing), and population size/density [12][13][14].…”

“…The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) for COVID-19 was estimated to be in the range of 1.4 to 2.5, [2,[8][9][10] with some studies reporting higher R 0 (e.g., >6) during outbreaks in some areas or regions of the world [11,12]. This variability in the R 0 estimates is due to several factors, including the model used for its estimation, public health interventions to control the pandemic, level of implementation of precautionary measures (e.g., travel restrictions, social distancing), and population size/density [12][13][14]. The case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 ranges from 0.87% to 2.79% in different countries, with a global CFR estimate of approximately 2.07% [2,15].…”

Epidemiological findings for the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic in Maharashtra, India

“…The Basic reproduction number, R 0 for the first wave was estimated by using the formula: where ρ is an exponential growth rate of the epidemic, 1/k is the mean latent (incubation) period and 1/ is the mean "onset to hospitalization" period during which the individual displays symptoms and can infect others ( Kumar et al, 2018 ; Shil et al, 2021 ).…”

“…The doubling time for the outbreaks was estimated using the formula: where ρ is the epidemic growth rate ( Eqn 4 ) ( Shil et al, 2021 ; Kumar et al, 2018 ).…”

“…In the first wave, there had been more than 15 million infections in India. COVID-19 covered all the districts of India by August 2020 ( Shil et al, 2021 ). As per the WHO situation report ( https://covid19.who.int/region/searo/country/in ), in India from 3 rd January 2020 up to, 31 st May 2021, there have been 2,88,09,339 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with 3,46,759 deaths.…”