Environmental conditions play an important role in post-disturbance dynamics of ecosystems by modulating recovery of surviving communities and influencing patterns of succession. Here, we document the effects of wave exposure following a catastrophic disturbance on coral reefs in driving a phase shift to macroalgal dominance. In December 2012, a Category 5 super typhoon ('Typhoon Bopha') passed 50 km to the south of Palau (Micronesia), causing a major loss of reef corals. Immediately post-disturbance, a rapid and extensive phase shift of the macroalgae Liagora sp. (Rhodophyta) was observed at sites exposed to chronic wave exposure. To quantify the influence of biotic and abiotic drivers in modulating the extent of post-disturbance Liagora blooms, we compared benthic substrates and herbivore assemblages at sites surveyed pre-and post-disturbance across a gradient of wave exposure. Relative changes in herbivore biomass and coral cover before and after disturbance did not significantly predict the extent of Liagora cover, indicating that changes in herbivore biomass or reductions in grazing pressure were not directly responsible for driving the Liagora blooms. By contrast, the degree of wave exposure experienced at sites post-disturbance explained [90 % of model variance (p \ 0.001, R 2 = 0.69), in that Liagora was absent at low exposure sites, while most extensive blooms were observed at highly exposed sites. At regional scales, spatial maps of wave exposure accurately predicted the presence of Liagora at impacted sites throughout the Palau archipelago ([150 km distance), highlighting the predictive capacity of wave exposure as an explanatory variable and the deterministic nature of postdisturbance macroalgal blooms. Understanding how physical conditions modulate recovery of ecosystems after disturbance allows insight into post-disturbance dynamics and succession of communities, ultimately allowing management strategies to prioritise restoration efforts in regions that are most effective.