Divergence without decoupling

Noymer, Andrew; Van, Viola

doi:10.4054/demres.2014.31.51

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 43 publications

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“…Since the projection interval is based on the tail densities, this elaboration is not crucial to the result (i.e., the projection interval widths). However, it is justified theoretically (Noymer and Van 2014;Raftery et al 2014) and is similar to the cointegrated approach discussed by Carter and Lee (1992) or the Poisson approach of Li (2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Race and life expectancy in the USA in the Great Depression

Bruckner

Ima

Nguyen

et al. 2019

Genus

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Prior work has highlighted increases in life expectancy in the USA during the Great Depression. This contradicts the tenet that life expectancy is positively correlated with human welfare, but it coheres with recent literature on mortality and recessions. We construct Lee-Carter interval estimates of life expectancy during the Great Depression, based on trends before 1929. In this analysis, all-race life expectancy did not grow unusually during the Great Depression. However, nonwhites did see greater-than-expected increases in life expectancy in 1930-1933. We discuss potential explanations. We conclude by urging scholars of mortality during this time period to focus on race whenever the data permit it.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Race and life expectancy in the USA in the Great Depression

Bruckner

Ima

Nguyen

et al. 2019

Genus

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Models for estimating empirical Gompertz mortality: With an application to evolution of the Gompertzian slope

Tai¹,

Noymer

2018

Population Ecology

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Using data from the human mortality database (HMD), and five different modeling approaches, we estimate Gompertz mortality parameters for 7,704 life tables. To gauge model fit, we predict life expectancy at age 40 from these parameters, and compare predicted to empirical values. Across a diversity of human populations, and both sexes, the overall best way to estimate Gompertz parameters is weighted least squares, although Poisson regression performs better in 996 cases for males and 1,027 cases for females, out of 3,852 populations per sex. We recommend against using unweighted least squares unless death counts (to use as weights or to allow Poisson estimation) are unavailable. We also recommend fitting to logged death rates. Over time in human populations, the Gompertz slope parameter has increased, indicating a more severe increase in mortality rates as age goes up. However, it is well‐known that the two parameters of the Gompertz model are very tightly (and negatively) correlated. When the slope goes up, the level goes down, and, overall, mortality rates are decreasing over time. An analysis of Gompertz parameters for all of the HMD countries shows a distinct pattern for males in the formerly socialist economies of Europe.

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Convergence or Divergence? Life Expectancy Patterns in Post-communist Countries, 1959–2010

2017

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In the 1960s and 1970s, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union experienced an unanticipated stagnation in the process of mortality reduction that was accelerating in the west. This was followed by even starker fluctuations and overall declines in life expectancy during the 1980s and 1990s. We identify statistically the extent to which, since the 1990s, the countries of the post-communist region have converged as a group towards other regional or cross-regional geopolitical blocks, or whether there are now multiple steady-states (‘convergence clubs’) emerging among these countries. We apply a complex convergence club methodology, including a recursive analysis, to data on 30 OECD countries (including 11 post-communist countries) drawn from the Human Mortality Database and spanning the period 1959–2010. We find that, rather than converging uniformly on western life expectancy levels, the post-communist countries have diverged into multiple clubs, with the lowest seemingly stuck in low-level equilibria, while the best performers (e.g. Czech Republic) show signs of catching-up with the leading OECD countries. As the post-communist period has progressed, the group of transition countries themselves has become more heterogeneous and it is noticeable that distinctive gender and age patterns have emerged. We are the first to employ an empirical convergence club methodology to help understand the complex long-run patterns of life expectancy within the post-communist region, one of very few papers to situate such an analysis in the context of the OECD countries, and one of relatively few to interpret the dynamics over the long-term.

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Divergence without decoupling

Cited by 3 publications

References 43 publications

Race and life expectancy in the USA in the Great Depression

Race and life expectancy in the USA in the Great Depression

Models for estimating empirical Gompertz mortality: With an application to evolution of the Gompertzian slope

Convergence or Divergence? Life Expectancy Patterns in Post-communist Countries, 1959–2010

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