DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245

Schupfner, Martin; Wieners, Karl-Hermann; Wachsmann, F.; Steger, C; Bittner, Matthias; Jungclaus, Johann; Früh, Barbara; Pankatz, Klaus; Giorgetta, Marco; Reick, Christian H.; Legutke, Stephanie; Esch, Monika; Gayler, Veronika; Haak, Helmuth; Vrese, Philipp de; Raddatz, Thomas; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Storch, Jin‐Song von; Behrens, Jörg; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Crueger, Traute; Fast, Irina; Fiedler, Stephanie; Hagemann, Stefan; Hohenegger, Cathy; Jahns, T.M.; Kloster, Silvia; Kinne, Stefan; Lasslop, Gitta; Kornblueh, Luis; Marotzke, Jochem; Matei, Daniela; Meraner, Katharina; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Modali, Kameswarrao; Müller, Wolfgang P.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Notz, Dirk; Peters, Karsten; Pincus, Robert; Pohlmann, Holger; Pongratz, J.; Rast, Sebastian; Schmidt, Hauke; Schnur, Reiner; Schulzweida, Uwe; Six, Katharina; Stevens, Björn; Voigt, Aiko; Roeckner, Erich

doi:10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4398

Cited by 9 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…No part of this degree was a normal one. One that started in the middle of the pandemic and ended amidst the most severe yet noble fight for women and human rights in my homeland, xi Danabasoglu (2019a, 2019b, 2019c, 2019d, 2019e, 2019f, 2019g, 2019h) Øyvind et al (2019a, 2019b, 2019c, 2019d) Boucher et al (2018, 2019b, 2019c) Volodin et al ( , 2019bVolodin et al ( , 2019cVolodin et al ( , 2019d Hajima et al ( 2019) Tachiiri et al (2019aTachiiri et al ( , 2019bTachiiri et al ( , 2019c Jungclaus et al ( 2019) Schupfner et al (2019aSchupfner et al ( , 2019bSchupfner et al ( , 2019c) Wieners et al (2019aWieners et al ( , 2019bWieners et al ( , 2019cWieners et al ( , 2019d Tang et al ( 2019) Good et al (2019a, 2019b, 2019c) Swart et al (2019b, 2019c, 2019d Krasting et al ( 2018) John et al (2018aJohn et al ( , 2018bJohn et al ( , 2018c…”

Section: Acknowledgementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time varying changes and uncertainties in the CMIP6 ocean carbon sink from global to regional to local scale

Gooya

Swart

Hamme

2022

Preprint

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Abstract. As a major sink for anthropogenic carbon, the oceans slow the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and regulate climate change. Future changes in the ocean carbon sink, and its uncertainty at a global and regional scale, are key to understanding the future evolution of the climate. Here, we conduct a multimodel analysis of the changes and uncertainties in the historical and future ocean carbon sink using output data from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: CMIP6, and observations. We show that the ocean carbon sink is concentrated in highly active regions – 70 percent of the total sink occurs in less than 40 percent of the global ocean. High pattern correlations between the historical and projected future carbon sink indicate that future uptake will largely continue to occur in historically important regions. We conduct a detailed breakdown of the sources of uncertainty in the future carbon sink by region. Scenario uncertainty dominates at the global scale, followed by model uncertainty, and then internal variability. We demonstrate how the importance of internal variability increases moving to smaller spatial scales and go on to show how the breakdown between scenario, model, and internal variability changes between different ocean basins, governed by different processes. Moreover, we show that internal variability changes with time based on the scenario. As with the mean sink, we show that uncertainty in the future ocean carbon sink is also concentrated in the known regions of historical uptake. The resulting patterns in the signal-to-noise ratio have strong implications for observational detectability and time of emergence, which varies both in space and with scenario. Our results suggest that to detect human influence on the ocean carbon sink as early as possible and to efficiently reduce uncertainty in future carbon uptake, modeling and observational efforts should be focused in the known regions of high historical uptake, including the Northwest Atlantic and the Southern Ocean.

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Section: Acknowledgementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time varying changes and uncertainties in the CMIP6 ocean carbon sink from global to regional to local scale

Gooya

Swart

Hamme

2022

Preprint

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CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Weijer

Cheng

Garuba

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

245

206

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We explore the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in 27 models from the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. Comparison with RAPID and SAMBA observations suggests that the ensemble mean represents the AMOC strength and vertical profile reasonably well. Linear trends over the entire historical period (1850-2014) are generally neutral, but many models exhibit an AMOC peak around the 1980s. Ensemble mean AMOC decline in future (SSP) scenarios is stronger in CMIP6 than CMIP5 models. In fact, AMOC decline in CMIP6 is surprisingly insensitive to the scenario at least up to 2060. We find an emergent relationship among a majority of models between AMOC strength and 21st century AMOC decline. Constraining this relationship with RAPID observations suggests that the AMOC might decline between 6 and 8 Sv (34-45%) by 2100. A smaller group of models projects much less AMOC weakening of only up to 30%. Plain Language Summary The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a circulation pattern in the Atlantic Ocean that is an important component of the climate system, due to its ability to redistribute and sequester heat and carbon. An accurate representation of the AMOC is a critical test for climate models and essential for building confidence in their projections. Here we investigate the AMOC in 27 climate models that contributed simulations to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We find that many models reproduce the observed AMOC quite well, but there are still several models in which the AMOC is too weak or too strong. Most models suggest a slight upward trend in the AMOC from 1850 to the 1980s. Simulations representing different scenarios for future socioeconomic development suggest a stronger AMOC decline compared to previous assessments. Using direct measurements of the AMOC since 2004 and an emerging across-model relationship between AMOC decline in the 21st century and their present-day mean state, we find that the majority of CMIP6 models point to an end of century AMOC weakening of 34-45% of its present-day strength. A smaller group of models projects much less weakening of only up to 30% of its present state.

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Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models

Wang

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

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In this study we assessed the representation of the sea surface salinity (SSS) and liquid freshwater content (LFWC) of the Arctic Ocean in the historical simulation of 31 CMIP6 models with comparison to 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and investigated the projected changes in Arctic liquid and solid freshwater content and freshwater budget in scenarios with two different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). No significant improvement was found in the SSS and LFWC simulation from CMIP5 to CMIP6, given the large model spreads in both CMIP phases. The overestimation of LFWC continues to be a common bias in CMIP6. In the historical simulation, the multi‐model mean river runoff, net precipitation, Bering Strait and Barents Sea Opening (BSO) freshwater transports are 2,928 ± 1,068, 1,839 ± 3,424, 2,538 ± 1,009, and −636 ± 553 km3/year, respectively. In the last decade of the 21st century, CMIP6 MMM projects these budget terms to rise to 4,346 ± 1,484 km3/year (3,678 ± 1,255 km3/year), 3,866 ± 2,935 km3/year (3,145 ± 2,651 km3/year), 2,631 ± 1,119 km3/year (2,649 ± 1,141 km3/year) and 1,033 ± 1,496 km3/year (449 ± 1,222 km3/year) under SSP5‐8.5 (SSP2‐4.5). Arctic sea ice is expected to continue declining in the future, and sea ice meltwater flux is likely to decrease to about zero in the mid‐21st century under both SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. Liquid freshwater exiting Fram and Davis straits will be higher in the future, and the Fram Strait export will remain larger. The Arctic Ocean is projected to hold a total of 160,300 ± 62,330 km3 (141,590 ± 50,310 km3) liquid freshwater under SSP5‐8.5 (SSP2‐4.5) by 2100, about 60% (40%) more than its historical climatology.

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DKRZ MPI-ESM1.2-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP ssp245

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Time varying changes and uncertainties in the CMIP6 ocean carbon sink from global to regional to local scale

Time varying changes and uncertainties in the CMIP6 ocean carbon sink from global to regional to local scale

CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Coupled Models

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