Do Campaign Events Matter? New Evidence from Voting Advice Applications

Kilibarda, Anja; Linden, Clifton van der; Dufresne, Yannick

doi:10.1002/polq.13034

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Fournier et al (2004) find that Canadians are responsive to campaign dynamics, the debate and media coverage and that many voters make up their mind during the campaign. A recent example of this phenomenon was the “orange wave” in Quebec, where Jack Layton's appearance on the popular Quebec talk show Tout le monde en parle , as well as the publication of numerous polls that demonstrated that the New Democratic Party (NDP) was for the first time in the party's history a viable party in the province, resulted in a pronounced increase in NDP vote intent in Quebec (Fournier et al, 2013; Kilabarda et al, 2020).…”

Section: Campaign Effects and Strategic Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…And while there is a growing body of literature that suggests that Canadians respond to campaign dynamics (Fournier et al, 2004; Johnston et al, 1996; Kilabarda et al, 2020) and that media coverage, polling and debates can affect respondents’ vote choice, the extent to which campaign dynamics affect the type of government preference remains to be determined. Further, little is known about how preferences over type of government might interact with beliefs about the election outcome to influence individual-level vote choice.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Government Preferences, Vote Choice and Strategic Voting in Canada

Rivard

Lockhart

2022

Can J Pol Sci

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Do voters use information about and preferences over who will form government in their vote choices? Voters might have preferences over both which party wins the most seats and what type of government that party can form, which they can use to inform their vote choice. To answer this question, we examine the influence of preferences over government types and compare them to trends in party support in the 2019 Canadian federal election. Using rolling, daily cross-sectional survey evidence from the Canadian Election Study, we find that preferences over government type are strongly related to vote choice and that this relationship depends on the perceived viability of the preferred party. We also find that this relationship differs outside and within Quebec: outside Quebec, only the Liberal Party suffers among voters preferring minority governments, while within Quebec, the Liberal Party, New Democratic Party and Conservative Party all struggle to hold on to voters who prefer minority governments.

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Section: Campaign Effects and Strategic Votingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%