Do Differing Analyses Change the Decision? Using a Game to Assess Whether Differing Analytic Approaches Improve Decisionmaking

Abstract

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Wargame of Drones: Remotely Piloted Aircraft and Crisis Escalation

“…First, wargames are not predictive. They can reveal that a certain action is plausible, but cannot definitively predict the course of an actual crisis given the role of chance and the decisions of specific participants (UK MoD 2017, 12-13; Bartels et al 2019). Second, wargames are simplifications of reality (Sabin 2014, 19-30).…”