Do growing degree days predict phenology across butterfly species?

Cayton, Heather; Haddad, Nick M.; Gross, Kevin; Diamond, Sarah E.; Ries, Leslie

doi:10.1890/15-0131.1

Cited by 103 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Recent research has suggested that growing degree days can be useful when modelling insect population dynamics because the accumulation of temperature potentially has a direct mechanistic effect on, for example, specific developmental stages that need a certain number of warm days for successful completion (Cayton et al, 2015). At Gates, timing of precipitation throughout the year was not nearly as important as the single largest event, which had the largest PIP (PIP = 0.948 and PMC = −0.530) of any climate variable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

Badik

Shapiro

Bonilla

et al. 2015

Ecological Entomology

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Abstract. 1. Ecologists often make predictions about community richness and diversity using climate variables that include seasonal precipitation totals and mean daily temperatures. While means and totals can be effective predictors to a certain extent, the complexities of faunal-climate relationships might be over-simplified through the use of coarse-grained variables.2. The goal of this study was to investigate less commonly studied climate variables, including indices of intra-annual variation in the timing and intensity of precipitation events that might be used to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient. Data from a long-term, single-observer dataset at four sites in California were examined with Bayesian model averaging and structural equation modelling. Species-specific responses to climate were compared with community responses at each site.3. At lower elevations, it was found that the relative importance of climate variables shifted towards temporal patterns of precipitation, including the timing of the first storm event and the annual number of precipitation events. Heterogeneity among sites was apparent in the importance of specific weather variables, and temporal trends (across years) were detected for a small number of variables. Species-specific results paralleled those obtained from analysis of species richness, thus suggesting a commonality of response to climate across site-specific assemblages.4. Models were improved by inclusion of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices, indicating that regional variables can profitably be included in faunal-climate relationship analyses. These results emphasise the need for researchers to examine climate variables beyond the most readily summarised means and totals.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

Badik

Shapiro

Bonilla

et al. 2015

Ecological Entomology

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“…The annual accumulation of degree days has proved to be a good indicator of spring phenology among insects (Cayton et al, 2015). The GDD measure is based on the specific temperature interval in which insect development can occur.…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

The forgotten season: the impact of autumn phenology on a specialist insect herbivore community on oak

Ekholm

Tack

Bolmgren

et al. 2019

Ecological Entomology

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1. Variation in spring phenology -like tree budburst -affects the structure of insect communities, but impacts of autumn phenology have been neglected. Many plant species have recently delayed their autumn phenology, and the timing of leaf senescence may be important for herbivorous insects.2. This study explored how an insect herbivore community associated with Quercus robur is influenced by variation in autumn phenology. For this, schools were asked to record, across the range of oak in Sweden, the autumn phenology of oaks and to conduct a survey of the insect community.3. To tease apart the relative impacts of climate from that of tree phenology, regional tree phenology was first modelled as a function of regional climate, and the tree-specific deviation from this relationship was then used as the metric of relative tree-specific phenology.4. At the regional scale, a warmer climate postponed oak leaf senescence. This was also reflected in the insect herbivore community: six out of 15 taxa occurred at a higher incidence and five out of 18 taxa were more abundant, in locations with a warmer climate. Similarly, taxonomic richness and herbivory were higher in warmer locations.5. Trees with a relatively late autumn phenology had higher abundances of leaf miners (Phyllonorycter spp.). This caused lower community diversity and evenness on trees with later autumn phenology.6. The findings of the present study illustrate that both regional climate-driven patterns and local variation in oak autumn phenology contribute to shaping the insect herbivore community. Community patterns may thus shift with a changing climate.

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“…Our analyses confirm these original ideas, albeit with a focus on rates of temperature increase rather than monthly mean SST. Similarly, many terrestrial species respond to growing degree days, which is the integral of temperature over time, and is a stronger predictor of butterfly emergence than calendar date [41].…”

Section: (B) Proximate Cuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

et al. 2016

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Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R 2 ¼ 0.73, peak: R 2 ¼ 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.

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Do growing degree days predict phenology across butterfly species?

Cited by 103 publications

References 36 publications

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

Beyond annual and seasonal averages: using temporal patterns of precipitation to predict butterfly richness across an elevational gradient

The forgotten season: the impact of autumn phenology on a specialist insect herbivore community on oak

Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

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