Do Higher Rents Discourage Fertility? Evidence from US Cities, 1940-2000

Abstract

This paper documents the existence of a negative cross-sectional correlation between the price of living space and fertility using U.S. Census data over the period 1940-2000. This correlation is not spurious, nor does it reflect the tendency of larger families to locate within lessexpensive areas of a given metropolitan area. We examine the extent to which the results reflect the sorting of married couples across metropolitan areas on desired fertility. The relationship between the unit price of living space and fertility in fact tends to be more negative for households that have moved recently. However, the probability of migration between metropolitan areas is smaller for larger families, even those originating in more expensive cities.Moreover, Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests reveal only limited evidence of endogeneity. The weaker effects of the price of living space for less mobile couples seems to be at least in part a result of their choosing to live in less-expensive portions within a given metropolitan area. 1 "Increased splendor, with higher prices for the necessaries of life, keep men from marrying in the cities

Fertility Cycles, Age Structure and Housing Demand

“…Simon and Tamura () have studied the link between rent levels and fertility in American cities from 1940 to 2000. They cite Alfred Marshall as a researcher who singled out housing as an important factor for fertility as early as the early 20th century.…”

“…The evaluation of the panel‐based estimates will furthermore be used to address a question that has lately received increased attention, namely to what extent housing market conditions, apart from being influenced by demographic shifts, also are shaping demographic trends, fertility in particular. Effects of house prices on fertility have been demonstrated for the USA (Simon and Tamura, ; Clark, 2011) and for Hong Kong (Yi and Zhang, ). Likewise, in a study of the Nordic countries, Kulu et al .…”

Fertility intention‐induced relocation: The mediating role of housing markets

“…Recent studies have showed that the cost of homeownership impacts on the decisions around fertility (Anderson et al, ; Clark & Drever, ; Courgeau & Lelièvre, ; Kulu & Vikat, ; Mulder & Wagner, ; Mulder & Wagner, ; Sato, ; Simon & Tamura, ), which is particularly relevant to Australian policy debates. High‐cost urban centres was found to drive relocation to more affordable suburban or rural areas to accommodate increasing family size (Kulu & Vikat, ), and the high cost of homeownership increased the cost of rearing children and was associated with delayed fertility (Clark, ; Courgeau & Lelièvre, ).…”

“…High‐cost urban centres was found to drive relocation to more affordable suburban or rural areas to accommodate increasing family size (Kulu & Vikat, ), and the high cost of homeownership increased the cost of rearing children and was associated with delayed fertility (Clark, ; Courgeau & Lelièvre, ). Similarly, the price of living space, measured by rent per room at the metropolitan area level, has shown a negative cross‐sectional relationship with fertility, which implies that house prices may affect the location or childbearing decisions of families (Simon & Tamura, ).…”

The influence of housing on family size in South Korea: Unstable housing and parity specific risk

“…Housing policies in the Netherlands, have expanded to provide a sizeable rental provision for students and young adults, which has produced an inadvertent fertility increase (Mills, 2015). U.S. Census data shows that the price of living space calculated by rent per room has a negative correlation with the level of fertility among younger families during the period between 1940 and 2000 (Simon & Tamura, 2009). Assuming that housing is a significant portion of overall household budgetary decisions, which also include childraising costs, the increase in house prices could present an adverse effect on fertility (Mulder & Billari, 2010).…”