Do jobs follow people or people follow jobs? A meta-analysis of Carlino–Mills studies

Abstract

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractThe issue whether regional development can be associated with population driving employment changes or employment driving population changes (do 'jobs follow people' or 'people follow jobs'?) has recently attracted considerable interest. Much of the interest herein stems from alleged inconsistencies in the empirical evidence, which naturally raises questions as for the reasons why.Arguably, the nature of causality differs across space as well as time, while speculations have been rife about a number of methodological issues that may play a crucial role in shaping the research outcomes. In this paper a preliminary attempt is described in clarifying these matters, by focusing on an articulate literature of 37 so-called 'Carlino-Mills studies'. Specifically, a statistically supported literature review, referred to as 'meta-analysis', is provided in which the study results are evaluated and systematically related to a variety of underlying study characteristics. By listing 308 study results reported in this literature, it is revealed that the empirical evidence is conform popular belief highly inconclusive, albeit that most results point towards 'jobs follow people'. The findings of the meta-regression analysis indicate that the spatial characteristics of the data, model specification, and variables measurement in particular affect the research outcomes that indicate the jobs-people direction of causality. No evidence is found that the examination of data referring to a particular time period, population and/ or employment group make much of a difference.

The Dynamics of Subcenter Formation: Midtown Manhattan, 1861–1906

“…Thus it remains an empirical question as to who moves first, firms or residents. A meta‐analysis of this body of literature finds evidence for the jobs‐follow‐people theory but results across studies depend on the data, specification and variables (Hoogstra, van Dijk, and Florax, ). Our work, however, supports the idea that residents on Manhattan moved first and then office‐based firms followed them.…”

Fight or flight? Crime as a driving force in business failure and business mobility

“…Indeed, a survey of business owners from firms that had moved in the last five years found that the crime and safety of a neighborhood are important for deciding on a new location, in addition to other measures of quality of life (Love and Crompton 1999). Studies on population-employment interactions also suggest that safety can influence business location and relocation decisions via population redistribution, while the literature is not unequivocal with regard to the question of whether jobs follow people or people follow jobs (Boarnet, Chalermpong, and Geho 2005;Hoogstra, van Dijk, and Florax 2017;Kim and Hewings 2013).…”

Une analyse spatiale des mouvements de l’emploi et de la population en France

“…Il existe un grand nombre de travaux basés sur le modèle de Gerald A. Carlino et Edwin S. Mills (1987), qui étudient le lien entre les dynamiques locales de l'emploi et de la population. Cependant, les résultats des études empiriques varient beaucoup selon les données mobilisées et selon l'échelle géographique à laquelle les études sont menées (Hoogstra et al, 2017). Nous souhaitons dans ce travail déterminer si c'est la population qui suit l'emploi ou bien si c'est l'emploi qui suit la population, en faisant l'hypothèse qu'il existe une hétérogénéité au sein des dynamiques de l'emploi et de celles de la population.…”