Do Non-State Armed Groups Influence Each Other in Attack Timing and Frequency? Generating, Analyzing, and Comparing Empirical Data and Simulation

Abstract

Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs) operate in complex environments, commonly existing as one of the many organizations engaged in one-sided violent attacks against the state and/or the civilian population. When trying to explain the execution and timing of these attacks, most theories look at NSAGs' internal organizational features or how these groups interact with the state or civilian population. In this study, we take a different approach: we use a self-exciting temporal model to ask if the behavior of one NSAG affects the behavior of other groups operating in the same country and if the actions of groups with actual ties (i.e., groups with some recognized relationship) have a larger effect than those with environmental ties (i.e., groups simply operating in the same country). We focus on

Salient Cleavages, Tactical Cooperation and Violence between Armed Groups in Yemen

“…Intergroup conflict affects relationships with and between actors by weakening an opponent's military capability and emboldening challengers; failure to account for consequential effects decreases the predictive ability and explanatory power of conventional models (Cremaschi et al, 2020). Ignoring connections between actions and effects leads to misleading conclusions about group behaviour, nature, and patterns of violence.…”

Salient Cleavages, Tactical Cooperation and Violence between Armed Groups in Yemen

“…Intergroup conflict affects relationships with and between actors by weakening an opponent's military capability and emboldening challengers; failure to account for consequential effects decreases the predictive ability and explanatory power of conventional models (Cremaschi et al, 2020). Ignoring connections between actions and effects leads to misleading conclusions about group behaviour, nature, and patterns of violence.…”