Do political relations affect exports to China? Evidence from the ‘Quad’

Agarwal, Vishesh; Golley, Jane

doi:10.1111/twec.13252

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) [18], Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) [19], Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) [20], Militarized Interstate Disputes (MID) [21], Virtual Research Associates (VRA)). These data were used to forecast economy [22], to estimate risks in investment [23], and to study peace [24], protests [25], and economic relations [26][27][28][29][30].…”

Section: Event Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

International cooperation analysis of Asian political distance network constructed using event data

Sada

Oikawa²,

Iwasaki³

et al. 2022

Front. Phys.

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Economic integration is underway in East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) community-building process, with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) coming into effect in 2018 and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2022. While these Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have deepened multilateral relations, there is an insufficient mechanism to quantify multilateral diplomacy within the region. Therefore, this study analyzed the region from three perspectives: countries that have contributed to diplomacy for intra-regional cooperation (diplomatic ranking), the cohesiveness of countries in diplomatic stances (diplomatic clusters), and the synchronization period of cooperative events (diplomatic synchronization); and we quantified them by the ranking of diplomatic centrality, blockmodeling of the signed network, and analytic signal, respectively. For analysis, we used bilateral event data to create a political distance network consisting of the original East Asia Summit (EAS) member countries (ASEAN+6) and the United States for the period 1985–2020 and to define diplomatic centrality. Diplomatic ranking indicated three major trends: 1985–1992, 1993–2011, and 2012–2020. Until 1992, Japan, the ASEAN member states (AMS), and Australia ranked at the top, and from 1993 to 2011, Japan and China almost dominated the top. Since 2012, AMS have joined Japan and China in the top ranks. Diplomatic clusters showed the stances of Australia and New Zealand were closest. Throughout the 36 years, the stances of Japan and Republic of Korea were also closer, followed by China, AMS, and the United States. Diplomatic synchronization quantified the progress of regionalism in East Asia. Furthermore, diplomatic rankings in synchronous periods revealed the difference between the diplomatic positions of Japan and China in East Asia and illustrated that AMS were at the center of multilateral diplomacy in the region in 2018–2019.

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Section: Event Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

International cooperation analysis of Asian political distance network constructed using event data

Sada

Oikawa²,

Iwasaki³

et al. 2022

Front. Phys.

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show abstract

“…Most empirical studies that quantify the effects of political determinants on trade do so within the context of a gravity model (Anderson and van Wincoop 2003;Du et al 2017: 218). The empirical approach in this chapter follows Du et al (2017) and Agarwal and Golley (2022) by situating the gravity model of trade within a vector auto-regression (VAR) framework. The flexible nature of this framework allows for the endogenous treatment of trade and political relations along with the covariates considered (Du et al 2017: 218).…”

Section: Empirical Model Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From a narrative perspective, these shocks can be interpreted as follows, respectively: an exogenous moderate political conflict event is initiated by China's partners; with a lag of one month, China retaliates through an attempt to change the terms of trade (measured as real exchange rates) in its favour; subsequently, the changes in terms of trade impact trade flows, which in turn lead to changes in consumption for both countries. 4 The model is estimated using data aggregated at the monthly level rather than annually, because political shocks tend to be short-lived, so aggregating data at the annual level in such work can lead to inappropriate inferences regarding the extent and timing of the effects of political shocks on trade (for further details, see Du et al 2017;Agarwal 2022;Agarwal and Golley 2022).…”

Section: Empirical Model Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a related study, Agarwal and Golley (2022) find that deteriorating political relations had short and long-run effects on India's aggregate export growth to China only between 1998 and 2018; for Australia, Japan and the United States, they report no effects of political relations on trade. Disaggregating by five-year subperiods, they find that long-term effects (lasting up to two years) are significant for India and Japan for the subperiod 1998-2002, while in all other subperiods there are no significant effects for any of the Quad countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

See 1 more Smart Citation

China’s Transition to a New Phase of Development

2022

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As the world's largest developing country, China is marching towards ambitious climate goals of achieving peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Given that China is the largest buyer of Australia's iron ore and one of the largest buyers of Australia's coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), such climate efforts could be expected to impact Australia profoundly. This chapter examines how China's transition to carbon neutrality will affect the Australian economy at the national and state levels and by industry. Our simulation shows that although China's imports of Australian fossil fuels will fall significantly, the impact of those changes on the national economy is negligible. However, the mining sector and those states and territories that rely on fossil fuel production will suffer relatively larger effects.

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“…Su et al (2022) used the Political Relations Index, which focuses on diplomacy and military, to measure the political relations between China and Japan, and analyzed the causal relationship between bilateral political relations and tourism demand in both countries. Agarwal and Golley (2022) chose to collect relevant data from the Global Database of Events, Location and Tone to recalculate the political relations between four countries (Australia, India, Japan and the United States) and China on a monthly basis, and provided a detailed introduction to the long-term and short-term impacts of political relations on trade between the four countries and China.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bilateral political relations and the security of China's energy imports

Tang,

Wang,

Yuan

et al. 2023

Energy Exploration & Exploitation

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As human demand for energy continues to grow, energy security has become an important research topic for national economic and social development. As the country with the highest energy demand and import in the world, China needs to ensure its energy import security in a personal way. Against this research background, this paper investigates the causal relationship between bilateral political relations and China's energy import security. This research selected HS 6-digit percentile trade data from 47 energy-exporting countries engaged in energy trade with China from 2000 to 2020. A trade gravity model was constructed to examine the impact of bilateral political relations on China's energy import security. Multiple empirical analyses were conducted using the PPMLHDFE method to investigate various aspects of the relationship. The research shows that: (1) Bilateral political relations can significantly affect China's energy trade imports. (2) The regional security situation of exporting countries and the signing of free trade agreements with China play a moderating role between bilateral political relations and energy imports. (3) In the heterogeneity analysis, the influence of bilateral political relations on China's energy trade has obvious stage characteristics, and the influence of bilateral political relations on China's energy trade is stronger in countries and regions along the Belt and Road Initiative, and there is a certain path-dependent type of China's energy imports.

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Do political relations affect exports to China? Evidence from the ‘Quad’

Cited by 8 publications

References 19 publications

International cooperation analysis of Asian political distance network constructed using event data

International cooperation analysis of Asian political distance network constructed using event data

China’s Transition to a New Phase of Development

Bilateral political relations and the security of China's energy imports

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