Do vehicle efficiency improvements lead to energy savings? The rebound effect in Great Britain

Craglia, Matteo Alexander McConnochie; Cullen, Jonathan M.

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104775

Cited by 31 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The annual well-to-wheel emissions (WTW) from the British fleet is calculated by multiplying the number of registered vehicles V by the share of new sales S of each powertrain, an age-dependent mileage M y,MY and the vehicles' emissions intensity η. The mileage M of vehicles drops by ≈330 miles/year as the vehicle ages, as shown in past work by the authors Craglia and Cullen (2020). Base levels of emissions intensities for each powertrain are included in the SI.…”

Section: Va Fementioning

confidence: 86%

“…However, there is some evidence that the rebound effect may have decreased over time with growing vehicle ownership and saturating travel demand in developed economies (Hughes et al, 2008). The lower bound estimate used here is δ Rebound = 0.046 from Craglia and Cullen (2020), based on a short-run calculation of the rebound effect for Great Britain.…”

Section: The Rebound Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling transport emissions in an uncertain future: What actions make a difference?

Craglia

Cullen

2020

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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Section: Va Fementioning

confidence: 86%

Section: The Rebound Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling transport emissions in an uncertain future: What actions make a difference?

Craglia

Cullen

2020

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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“…Previous studies have found that these changes may be difficult in the U.S. due to the population density, historical transport policies, and cultural attitudes. ,, Another barrier to reducing transport demand while also improving fuel economies (and a limitation of this study) is the potential for rebound effects. For example, Craglia and Cullen (2020) found that improving vehicle efficiency has resulted in increased travel in the U.K. with a rebound effect of around 5% . EPA and NHTSA (2016) assumed a rebound effect of 10% in the technical assessment report for CAFE standard based on another U.K. study by Sorrell and Dimitropoulos (2007), while the California Air Resources Board used a rebound effect of 3% when setting the Advanced Clean Cars Program.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Craglia and Cullen (2020) found that improving vehicle efficiency has resulted in increased travel in the U.K. with a rebound effect of around 5%. 108 EPA and NHTSA (2016) 7 assumed a rebound effect of 10% in the technical assessment report for CAFE standard based on another U.K. study by Sorrell and Dimitropoulos (2007), while the California Air Resources Board used a rebound effect of 3% when setting the Advanced Clean Cars Program. Some of the pressure to reduce LDV mileage through increased public transport may be relieved through increased remote work: 30% of U.S. LDV transport vehicle mile demand is for commuting to work.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Light-Duty Transport in Line with the 2 °C Target

Zhu

Skerlos

et al. 2021

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Making, driving, and disposing of U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) account for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions related to energy and processing. This study calculates future emissions and global temperature rises attributable to U.S. LDVs. We examine how 2021−2050 U.S. LDV cumulative emissions can be limited to 23.1 Gt CO 2equiv , helping to limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We vary four vehicle life cycle parameters (transport demand, sales share of alternative fuel vehicles, vehicle material recycling rates, and vehicle lifespans) in a dynamic fleet analysis to determine annual LDV sales, scrappage, and fleet compositions. We combine these data with vehicle technology and electricity emission scenarios to calculate annual production, use, and disposal emissions attributable to U.S. LDVs. Only 3% of the 1512 modeled pathways stay within the emission limit. Cumulative emissions are most sensitive to transport demand, and the speed of fleet electrification and electricity decarbonization. Increasing production of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 100% of sales by 2040 (at the latest) is necessary, and early retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles is beneficial. Rapid electricity decarbonization minimizes emissions from BEV use and increasingly energy-intensive vehicle production. Deploying high fuel economy vehicles can increase emissions from the production of BEV batteries and lightweight materials. Increased recycling has a small effect on these emissions because over the time period there are few postconsumer batteries and lightweight materials available for recycling. Without aggressive actions, U.S. LDVs will likely exceed the cumulative emissions budget by 2039 and contribute a further 0.02 °C to global warming by 2050, 2.7% of the remaining global 2 °C budget.

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“…Li et al [ 49 ] concluded that the rebound effect was 88.42% in China’s industries and that investment-driven economic growth was detrimental to energy conservation. Craglia and Cullen [ 50 ] used a more detailed dataset of UK vehicle airworthiness tests between 2006 and 2017 to study the rebound effect. They further investigated the differences in rebound effects by geographic location and vehicle type.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Energy Efficiency Realize Energy Conservation in the Iron and Steel Industry? A Perspective of Energy Rebound Effect

Lin

2022

IJERPH

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The energy rebound effect may weaken the impact of energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption. Therefore, the rebound effect is an important consideration in energy and environmental policies. This study takes the iron and steel industry as the research object, which is a large energy consumption sector in China, and the improved technique is used to estimate the energy rebound effect. The study constructs the dynamic energy efficiency utilizing provincial data from 2000 to 2019. The energy rebound effect from factor substitution and output expansion is then calculated. The research further discusses regional differences in the energy rebound effect. The results indicate that the technical progress of the iron and steel industry promotes energy efficiency improvements. The eastern region shows the best energy efficiency performance, followed by the central area, and the western region performs the worst in energy efficiency. The industrial energy rebound effect is 0.4297, which partially offsets the energy reduction caused by energy efficiency improvements. Factor substitution and output growth produce the industrial energy rebound effect. Furthermore, the rebound effect exhibits distinct geographical features. The policy suggestions are finally proposed to mitigate the industrial rebound effect and achieve energy and carbon reductions.

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Do vehicle efficiency improvements lead to energy savings? The rebound effect in Great Britain

Cited by 31 publications

References 35 publications

Modelling transport emissions in an uncertain future: What actions make a difference?

Modelling transport emissions in an uncertain future: What actions make a difference?

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Light-Duty Transport in Line with the 2 °C Target

Does Energy Efficiency Realize Energy Conservation in the Iron and Steel Industry? A Perspective of Energy Rebound Effect

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