Scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5°C describe major transformations in energy supply and everrising energy demand. Here we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the Global North and South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today despite rising population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5°C climate target as well as many Sustainable Development Goals, without relying on negative emission technologies. * Contingency reserve of 8 EJ is allocated equally to Global North and South respectively. Bunker fuels are reported at the global level only, consistent with current energy balances and emission accounting frameworks. Activity level units vary per end-use service and upstream sector: a billion m 2 of floor space; b trillion passengerkilometres; c billion tonnes of materials; d trillion tonne-kilometres.

Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.

Chemical products are ubiquitous in modern society. The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy consumer and the third largest industrial emitter of carbon dioxide. The current portfolio of mitigation options for the chemical sector emphasizes upstream "supply side" solutions, whereas downstream mitigation options, such as material efficiency, are given comparatively short shrift. Key reasons for this are the scarcity of data on the sector's material flows, and the highly intertwined nature of its complex supply chains. We provide the most up to date, comprehensive and transparent data set available publicly, on virgin production routes in the chemical sector: from fossil fuel feedstocks to chemical products. We map global mass flows for the year 2013 through a complex network of transformation processes, and by taking account of secondary reactants and by-products, we maintain a full mass balance throughout. The resulting data set partially addresses the dearth of publicly available information on the chemical sector's supply chain, and can be used to prioritise downstream mitigation options.

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Water quality data for 56 long-term monitoring sites in eight European countries are used to assess freshwater responses to reductions in acid deposition at a large spatial scale. In a consistent analysis of trends from 1980 onwards, the majority of surface waters (38 of 56) showed significant (p ≤ 0.05) decreasing trends in pollution-derived sulphate. Only two sites showed a significant increase. Nitrate, on the other hand, had a much weaker and more varied pattern, with no significant trend at 35 of 56 sites, decreases at some sites in Scandinavia and Central Europe, and increases at some sites in Italy and the UK. The general reduction in surface water acid anion concentrations has led to increases in acid neutralising capacity (significant at 27 of 56 sites) but has also been offset in part by decreases in base cations, particularly calcium (significant at 26 of 56 sites), indicating that much of the improvement in runoff quality to date has been the result of decreasing ionic strength. Increases in acid neutralising capacity have been accompanied by increases in pH and decreases in aluminium, although fewer trends were significant (pH 19 of 56, aluminium 13 of 53). Increases in pH appear to have been limited in some areas by rising concentrations of organic acids. Within a general trend towards recovery, some inter-regional variation is evident, with recovery strongest in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, moderate in Scandinavia and the United Kingdom, and apparently weakest in Germany.