Options for Achieving a 50% Cut in Industrial Carbon Emissions by 2050

Abstract

Carbon emissions from industry are dominated by production of goods in steel, cement plastic, paper, and aluminum. Demand for these materials is anticipated to double at least by 2050, by which time global carbon emissions must be reduced by at least 50%. To evaluate the challenge of meeting this target the global flows of these materials and their associated emissions are projected to 2050 under five technical scenarios. A reference scenario includes all existing and emerging efficiency measures but cannot provide sufficient reduction. The application of carbon sequestration to primary production proves to be sufficient only for cement The emissions target can always be met by reducing demand, for instance through product life extension, material substitution, or "light-weighting". Reusing components shows significant potential particularly within construction. Radical process innovation may also be possible. The results show that the first two strategies, based on increasing primary production, cannot achieve the required emissions reductions, so should be balanced by the vigorous pursuit of material efficiency to allow provision of increased material services with reduced primary production.

The greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation options for materials used in UK construction

“…Qualitative research in this area is limited to a handful of materials and applications, for example the use of timber in 6 See Supporting Information.…”

“…Widespread CCS is unlikely to occur within the timescale required [23] to achieve embodied emissions reductions of the order of 21% by 2022, as suggested by the GCB [19]. Consequently, reductions of the order of magnitude required are unlikely to be met through improvements in material production methods alone [6]. If substantial reductions are to be made in embodied emissions, then reducing the use of these carbon-intensive materials will need to play a significant role.…”

“…Buildings are the sector with the largest single energy use worldwide and are responsible for approximately a third of global carbon emissions [5,6].…”

Material efficiency: providing material services with less material production

“…There are remaining opportunities for efficiency, but they are not sufficient to meet the very ambitious emissions reductions targets proposed by climate scientists. Therefore, unless there exist less CO 2 intensive substitute materials with comparable performance available in comparable quantities, or unless a new low-carbon energy supply replaces the use of fossil fuels, or unless CO 2 be captured and stored safely, the ambition to reduce industrial emissions can be translated into an aim to reduce our total requirement for materials production. A review of published analyses of emissions intensities (emissions per tonne of material produced) of the five most emitting materials (steel, cement, plastic, paper and aluminium), which have already been subject to 100 years of improvement efforts motivated by costs, suggests that they could further improve by at most around 25-40% [2].…”

“…Most energy is produced by combusting fossil fuels, so materials processing is a major driver of carbon emissions and hence climate change. However, there will be significant limits to future improvements in process efficiency, because energy costs have already driven key processes near to their technical limits [2]. Therefore, a key component of mankind's response to global warming must be to produce less new material.…”