Does Hollywood Make Too Many R‐Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation

Vany, Arthur De; Walls, W. David

doi:10.1086/339890

Cited by 118 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Non-normal distributions of film revenues have been identified as a challenge in the literature since De Vany and Walls (1996). However, while this has been identified, for example as a feature of US revenues (De Vany & Walls, 1999, 2002, the Shapiro-Wilk W tests for normality confirmed that for the current dataset, both total logged Chinese revenues and logged revenues for the first week of a film's release are normally distributed. 18 18 For the sake of brevity test results are available on request.…”

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 55%

“…The literature, regardless of the explicit use of signaling theory, has examined a number of signal variables including production budget (Akdeniz & Talay, 2013;Brewer, Kelley, & Jozefowicz, 2009;De Vany & Walls, 2002;McKenzie, 2009;Ravid, 1999); star power (Akdeniz & Talay, 2013;Brewer et al, 2009;De Vany & Walls, 1999;Nelson & Glotfelty, 2012;Prag & Casavant, 1994;Ravid, 1999); sequels (Akdeniz & Talay, 2013;Basuroy et al, 2006;Moon, Bergey, & Iacobucci, 2010); major film award nominations and prizes (Deuchert, Adjamah, & Pauly, 2005;Nelson, Donihue, Waldman, & Wheaton, 2001;Prag & Casavant, 1994) and online film reviews (Moon et al, 2010). In terms of geographical coverage of the research, literature to date on film performance has rarely focused on countries other than the US, the UK and European markets.…”

Section: China's Film Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Film producers take actions to indicate unobservable film quality to audiences. Big budgets translate into lavish sets, costumes and special effects, reflecting film producers' belief in the quality of a film produced (Brewer et al, 2009;De Vany & Walls, 2002;McKenzie, 2009;Ravid, 1999). The careers of studio executives depend on the success of films.…”

Section: China's Film Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

et al. 2017

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Grounded in signaling theory, this paper investigates the signals reflecting product quality, innovativeness, reputation and cultural background which influence film performance, that is, film survival (duration on cinema screen) and box office success, in China's changing institutional context. This market has grown substantially and still possesses potential for further development. However, China's unique institutional context presents challenges. By examining an expanded range of potential signals, two of which have not previously been examined in the literature, namely imported films and enhanced format film formats such as 3D and IMAX, we develop a conceptual framework and argue that signaling theory needs to be combined with institutional context. Similar to findings for film industries in other countries, we find quality and reputational signals including budget, star power, sequels, and online Asia Pac J Manag (2018) 35:63-95

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Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 55%

Section: China's Film Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: China's Film Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

et al. 2017

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“…De Walls (2002 &2004) further asserted that the studio model of risk management, whereby studios need to draw a film project out of so many available, lacked foundation in theory and evidence. They claimed that in such highly competitive situations, experience and learning, which were predictors of success on average, were not closely related to outcomes because success depended on something different -getting an extreme draw in a small sample.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The determinants of box office performance in the film industry revisited

Pangarker

Smit

2013

SAJBM

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The film industry is a significant player in the global economy. It calls for significant up-front investments with the result that analysts, studios and investors alike are interested in predicting box office success as part of financial risk management.This study utilises global box office revenue in assessing the effects of eight explanatory variables, identified from previous studies, in the explanation of revenue. Nearly three decades after the seminal study the extension of the original methodology to global rather than USA data, still confirms production cost, releases by major studios, award nominations and sequels to successful films as the key drivers of global box office revenue. The evidence further suggests that in the modern global context, the film genre, the release date around holidays and positive critical reviews play a less significant role than in the original investigation.

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“…Although about half of films are rated either PG or PG-13, R-rated movies often constitute the single most common MPAA rating in film samples (Simonton, 2004c). Even so, R-rated films have a much higher probability of being financial flops with respect to both short-and long-term box office, whereas the most profitable films are to be found in the most accessible categories, especially PG-13 (De Vany & Walls, 2002;Medved, 1992;Ravid, 1999;Simonoff & Sparrow, 2000;Simonton, 2005b;cf. Litman & Ahn, 1998;Walls, 2005b).…”

Section: Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

Simonton

2009

Psychology and Marketing

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The author reviewed the empirical research on the factors underlying the success of feature-length narrative films. After specifying some methodological caveats, the review examined the three main criteria by which a film's success can be evaluated: critical evaluations (both early and post-theatrical run), financial performance (including first weekend and gross), and movie awards (including dramatic, visual, technical, and music categories). To what extent do these criteria represent distinct aesthetic and economic assessments? The review then turned to the various predictors of these success criteria. How is success connected with the film's production and distribution characteristics? To what extent do the predictors converge and diverge across alternative criteria? The article then closes with a discussion of some psychological issues raised by the reviewed findings.

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Does Hollywood Make Too Many R‐Rated Movies? Risk, Stochastic Dominance, and the Illusion of Expectation

Cited by 118 publications

References 14 publications

Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

Behind film performance in China’s changing institutional context: The impact of signals

The determinants of box office performance in the film industry revisited

Cinematic success criteria and their predictors: The art and business of the film industry

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