The determinants of box office performance in the film industry revisited

Abstract

The film industry is a significant player in the global economy. It calls for significant up-front investments with the result that analysts, studios and investors alike are interested in predicting box office success as part of financial risk management.This study utilises global box office revenue in assessing the effects of eight explanatory variables, identified from previous studies, in the explanation of revenue. Nearly three decades after the seminal study the extension of the original methodology to global rather than USA data, still confirms production cost, releases by major studios, award nominations and sequels to successful films as the key drivers of global box office revenue. The evidence further suggests that in the modern global context, the film genre, the release date around holidays and positive critical reviews play a less significant role than in the original investigation.

Full Issue Vol 8 No 1 (2019)

“…With regard to movie awards, we could consider that they are a factor external to the movie that give it an extra extrinsic characteristic; however, as we have seen in the theoretical review, the awards are the product of the ratings by critics, scholars and the public (Deuchert et al, 2005;Terry et al, 2005;Pangarker & Smit, 2013). These comments come from people who have seen the movie, and therefore they take on an experiential value and function as such with regard to moviegoers (Henning-Thurau, Wiertz & Feldhaus, 2012).…”

Revenue Sharing Contracts for Value Chain Coordination: The Case of Motion Picture Industry in the USA

“…Обычно конкретные условия контракта между дистрибьютором и кинотеатрами конфиденциальны, а дележу подлежит доход бокс-офиса (кассовые сборы). Со стороны кинотеатров недобросовестное поведение может выражаться в искажении истинного размера боксофиса [Hanssen, 2000;Caves, 2001;Eliashberg, Elberse, Leenders, 2005;Pangarker, Smit, 2013].…”

Movie Title Keywords: A Text Mining and Exploratory Factor Analysis of Popular Movies in the United States and China

“…However, their study failed to explain the exact mechanism and conflicted with Feng and Sharma (2016) study, which showed, with quantile regressions, that high-budget films were not always successful in the Chinese movie market. Others have postulated that action movies and sequel movies are more likely to be high grossing, as evidenced by the fact that more than half of the highest-grossing movies belong to these genres, including Toy Story, The Dark Knight, Harry Potter and Transformers (Pangarker and Smit 2013). However, as mentioned before, these highest-grossing movies only account for the tip of the iceberg and hardly represent the long tail of the less-famous movies unknown to the public.…”