Does political conflict affect bilateral trade or vice versa? Evidence from Sino-U.S. relations

Su, Chi‐Wei; Song, Yu; Tao, Ran; Lü, Hao

doi:10.1080/1331677x.2019.1694559

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 65 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Therefore, according to the stability test, we find a significant non-constant interaction between VIX and BTC, so the results of the full-sample test are unreliable in the study. Consequently, to determine the time variations interaction between VIX and BTC, we conduct the bootstrap sub-sample rolling-window causality test (Su et al, 2020e). In particular, the rolling window width is selected as 24 4 to ensure the credibility of causality analysis in this paper.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Can Bitcoin Be a Safe Haven in Fear Sentiment?

Yuan

Tao

et al. 2022

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper explores how fear sentiment affects the price of Bitcoin by employing the rolling-window Granger causality tests. The analysis reveals negative influences from the volatility index (VIX) to Bitcoin price (BTC), which ascertains that Bitcoin can not be considered a haven in fear sentiment. Due to the liquidity in economic downside risks, BTC may decrease with high VIX to hedge losses, increasing during low VIX periods. The empirical results conflict with the intertemporal capital asset pricing model, which underlines that the increasing VIX can promote the price of Bitcoin. In turn, BTC positively impacts VIX, which shows that Bitcoin price can be treated as the main indicator for a more comprehensive analysis of the fear index. Under severe global uncertainty and changeable fluctuation of market sentiment, investors can optimize investment decisions based on market fear sentiment. The government can also consider VIX to grasp the trend of BTC to participate in cryptocurrency speculation effectively.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, instead of the traditional Granger causality test, we will apply the bootstrap sub-sample rolling window method to explore the Granger causality between VIX and BTC over time. We can take the natural logarithm of VIX, BTC, and USDX to avoid potential heteroscedasticity in the parameters (Su et al, 2020e).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Bitcoin Be a Safe Haven in Fear Sentiment?

Yuan

Tao

et al. 2022

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For many authors in the liberalist school, trade symbolizes a pathway to peace and prosperity, as argued by the liberalists (Polachek, 1980;Barbieri, 1996;Cali, 2015, Tanious, 2019Krpec and Hodulak, 2019;Su et al, 2020;Lee and Pyun, 2009). Polachek (1980) provided evidence supporting the hypothesis that nations that experience a high level of INT-TRAD possess more incentives to keep healthy relationships with their trade partners.…”

Section: Evidence From the Literaturementioning

confidence: 89%

Contingencies in the relationship between trade and internal conflict in Nigeria: the role of the quality of the political institution

Okunlola¹

2022

IJSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

PurposeThis paper empirically tests the relationship between conflict and trade in Nigeria from 1986 to 2017.Design/methodology/approachThis study made use of secondary data. Time-series data were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin, WDI of the World Bank, MEPV of the Centre for Systemic Peace database, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, political risk ratings of the ICRG, Freedom in the World Country Ratings of Freedom House, and ACLED database. This study used descriptive and econometrics techniques to analyze the data. It adopted the IV-GMM techniques.FindingsThe study found that domestic trade has a negative and significant effect on internal conflict in Nigeria. International trade, on the other hand, does not affect internal conflict. In addition, the interaction of trade and institutions shows that more civil liberties (CL) and lower corruption (COR) complement the effect of domestic and international trade in reducing hostilities in Nigeria over the study period.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of this study is the inaccessibility of data. This study could not access the data on the volume of domestic trade in Nigeria. The study employed value-added tax on all domestic transactions in Nigeria as a proxy for domestic trade in the country. The study recommends that further studies should access the data on the volume of domestic trade as this could help further understand the relationship between domestic trade and internal conflict in Nigeria.Practical implicationsSince the improved domestic trade reduces internal conflict in Nigeria, the government should formulate policies that facilitate trade. Improving anti-graft efforts and CL will ease the process of formulating trade policies and increase the impact of domestic trade on internal conflict. Furthermore, these will reduce trade barriers and transaction costs. This can be achieved if the government strengthens its anti-COR agencies by making them more autonomous. CL can also be increased by enhancing voice and accountability in the country.Originality/valueThis study advances the literature by examining the role political–institutional quality plays in the relationship between trade and conflict.

show abstract

“…The conventional view suggests that political conflict between countries is often accompanied by the imposition of partial or total trade embargoes on the exchange of goods. Conflict may also reduce trade flows by raising the costs for private agents to engage in international business [ 2 , 26 , 28 , 63 , 64 ]. Pollins [ 53 ] constructed a theoretical model of trade flows which reveals that a reduction in political conflict increases trade between countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade Dependence, Uncertainty Expectations, and Sino–U.S. Political Relations

Song

Chen

Hou

2022

J OF CHIN POLIT SCI

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study applies a time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to explore the time-varying property of the link between Sino-US political relations and trade. The results indicate that the association of these two variables appears to be unstable. Sino-US political relations have positive and negative impacts on their bilateral trade, and the impact on Chinese imports is stronger than on its exports. In turn, Chinese imports from the US lead to political conflict, while Chinese exports promote peace. The interaction mechanism may originate from the expectations of the future trade environment caused by trade policy uncertainty. The interactions between Sino-US political relations and bilateral trade at different time points are also investigated. The results demonstrate that the link between these two variables is slightly different, depending on the specific status of the bilateral political relationship (friendly, neutral or hostile). Both China and the US should seek common interests to maintain a stable political relationship, and even with an increasing volume of bilateral trade, the risk of political conflicts should not be neglected.

show abstract

Does political conflict affect bilateral trade or vice versa? Evidence from Sino-U.S. relations

Cited by 15 publications

References 65 publications

Can Bitcoin Be a Safe Haven in Fear Sentiment?

Can Bitcoin Be a Safe Haven in Fear Sentiment?

Contingencies in the relationship between trade and internal conflict in Nigeria: the role of the quality of the political institution

Trade Dependence, Uncertainty Expectations, and Sino–U.S. Political Relations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About