Does Serious Offending Lead to Homicide?: Exploring the Interrelationships and Sequencing of Serious Crime

Abstract

The interrelationships between serious types of crime have been neglected. Focusing on those convicted of arson (n=45,915), blackmail (n=5,774), kidnapping (n=7,291) and threats to kill (n=9,816) in England and Wales (1979-2001), we examine the specialisation and sequencing of these crimes in relation to the risk of subsequent homicide. All four offences have a heightened likelihood of subsequent homicide compared to the general population. Arson, blackmail and threats to kill have a similar homicide risk (0.8%) after a 20-year follow-up; in contrast, kidnapping has a higher likelihood (1.0%). Sequencing is also relevant, with those convicted of more than one type of serious offence being at higher risk of a homicide conviction. Additionally, there is evidence of specialisation (particularly for arsonists) among serious offenders who recidivate.

Criminal Specialization Revisited: A Simultaneous Quantile Regression Approach

“…Third, the current dataset (n=500) is relatively modest and geographically limited compared to other research which analyzed data from large birth cohorts or larger samples (Blumstein and Cohen 1979;Brame et al 2004;Lynam et al 2004;Soothill et al 2008) and it is unknown if the external validity of the present findings would be replicated across data sets. We do not purport that the offense specialization coefficient (OSC) is the definitive measure of specialization; however, it is promising.…”

“…They found evidence of violence specialization in all three samples. Soothill et al (2008) recently examined large samples of offenders convicted of arson (n =45,915), blackmail (n =5,774), kidnapping (n=7,291), and threats to kill (n=9,816) in England and Wales between 1979 and 2001. They found that those initially convicted of arson were the most likely to specialize and were four times more likely to subsequently be convicted of arson.…”

The Psychological Basis of Threatening Behaviour

“…Where it was once thought that threats were dramatic but empty rhetoric (Calhoun, 1998;Dietz, Matthews, Martell et al, 1991;Dietz, Matthews, Van Duyne et al, 1991), new data have revealed that over 40% of those criminally convicted for threatening to kill will progress to physical violence (Warren, Mullen, Thomas, Ogloff, & Burgess, 2008). Further, murder is committed far more frequently by those whose homicidal threats are reported to authorities, than by members of the general community (MacDonald, 1968;Soothill, Francis, & Liu, 2008;Warren et al, 2008). Warren and colleagues (2008) found the rate to be more than 100 times higher than would be expected by chance.…”

Modelling escalation in crime seriousness: a latent variable approach

“…Custodial sentence This is the cumulative custodial sentence length (in years) up but not including the current conviction occasion for each offender. This is a proxy measure for the time spent in prison; in general offenders serve between 40 and 50 % of sentences awarded [42].…”