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No abstract

The interrelationships between serious types of crime have been neglected. Focusing on those convicted of arson (n=45,915), blackmail (n=5,774), kidnapping (n=7,291) and threats to kill (n=9,816) in England and Wales (1979-2001), we examine the specialisation and sequencing of these crimes in relation to the risk of subsequent homicide. All four offences have a heightened likelihood of subsequent homicide compared to the general population. Arson, blackmail and threats to kill have a similar homicide risk (0.8%) after a 20-year follow-up; in contrast, kidnapping has a higher likelihood (1.0%). Sequencing is also relevant, with those convicted of more than one type of serious offence being at higher risk of a homicide conviction. Additionally, there is evidence of specialisation (particularly for arsonists) among serious offenders who recidivate.

In criminal careers research, specialization has usually been defined through prespecifying spheres of criminal activity (violent/nonviolent or sexual, violent, burglary, theft, etc.) and then determining the amounts of criminal activity lying within these spheres over a certain time period. However, there is increasing recognition that some offenders work in well-defined domains of offending, which cut across these groups. Thus, some offenders might be involved in both burglary and theft, but unwilling to engage in violent activity, whereas others might also be involved in violence. The authors propose an alternative approach to specialization using latent transition analysis. This approach seeks to identify such domains of activity, which would represent criminal lifestyles. Offenders staying within a domain over time can be defined as lifestyle specialized; those moving between domains are lifestyle versatile. The criminal lifestyles themselves can represent different degrees of diversity. The concept is assessed on England and Wales birth cohort data on female court convictions and comparisons are made with traditional measures of specialization. The authors identify that some females engage in one criminal lifestyle and move to non-offending, others will progress to more diverse lifestyles as they age. Late starters will also tend to engage in diverse patterns of offending.

We aimed at quantifying the extent to which agricultural management practices linked to animal production and land use affect environmental outcomes at a larger scale. Two practices closely linked to farm environmental performance at a larger scale are farming intensity, often resulting in greater off-farm environmental impacts (land, non-renewable energy use etc.) associated with the production of imported inputs (e.g. concentrates, fertilizer); and the degree of self-sufficiency, i.e. the farm’s capacity to produce goods from its own resources, with higher control over nutrient recycling and thus minimization of losses to the environment, often resulting in greater on-farm impacts (eutrophication, acidification etc.). We explored the relationship of these practices with farm environmental performance for 185 French specialized dairy farms. We used Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling to build, and relate, latent variables of environmental performance, intensification and self-sufficiency. Proxy indicators reflected the latent variables for intensification (milk yield/cow, use of maize silage etc.) and self-sufficiency (home-grown feed/total feed use, on-farm energy/total energy use etc.). Environmental performance was represented by an aggregate ‘eco-efficiency’ score per farm derived from a Data Envelopment Analysis model fed with LCA and farm output data. The dataset was split into two spatially heterogeneous (bio-physical conditions, production patterns) regions. For both regions, eco-efficiency was significantly negatively related with milk yield/cow and the use of maize silage and imported concentrates. However, these results might not necessarily hold for intensive yet more self-sufficient farms. This requires further investigation with latent variables for intensification and self-sufficiency that do not largely overlap- a modelling challenge that occurred here. We conclude that the environmental ‘sustainability’ of intensive dairy farming depends on particular farming systems and circumstances, although we note that more self-sufficient farms may be preferable when they may benefit from relatively low land prices and agri-environment schemes aimed at maintaining grasslands.