Does the geographical complexity of the Colombian financial conglomerates increase banks’ risk? The role of diversification, regulatory arbitrage, and funding costs

Abstract

During the last decade Colombian international financial conglomerates (IFC) expanded abroad, significantly increasing their geographical complexity. This paper analyzes the effect of this change in geographical complexity on the risk level of individual Colombian banks. We use monthly bank-level data on financial indicators and complexity measures for the period 2007-2018. We use the Z-score as a measure of bank risk and the number of countries in which a Colombian IFC has foreign banks subsidiaries as a measure of geographical complexity. Our results suggest that complexity is associated with higher levels of individual bank risk, as a result of an expansion to countries with large GDP co-movements and lower regulatory qualities. In addition, we find that banks with access to international funding respond differently to monetary policy changes. In particular, during periods of domestic monetary policy tightening (loosening), individual banks of complex IFCs present higher (lower) levels of risk, suggesting that the monetary policy risk taking channel is affected by the level of geographical complexity.

Complexity and riskiness of banking organizations: Evidence from the International Banking Research Network

“…Colombian banks that belong to a more complex banking organization are more sensitive to changes in local monetary policy. During periods of monetary policy tightening, these banks experience higher level of idiosyncratic risks as a result of higher risk taking of these institutions (Cardozo, Morales-Acevedo, Murcia and Rosado 2021).…”

The internationalization of domestic banks and the credit channel of monetary policy

“…Third, the impact of the relatively higher intermediation margins in Central America compared to Colombia and lower entry barriers to the banking system in Central American countries (Uribe, 2013b). In this regard, Cardozo et al (2021) find that Colombian banking expansion to countries with large GDP co-movements and lower regulatory qualities is associated with higher levels of banks' risk. Moreover, they find that complex banks increase their demand for external funds when the internal cost of capital increases, an aspect in which we add evidence based on the bank-lending channel of monetary policy.…”

The internationalization of domestic banks and the credit channel of monetary policy

“…Third, the impact of the relatively higher intermediation margins in Central America compared to Colombia and lower entry barriers to the banking system in Central American countries (Uribe, 2013). In this regard, Cardozo et al (2021) find that Colombian banking expansion to countries with large GDP co-movements and lower regulatory qualities is associated with higher levels of banks' risk. Moreover, they find that complex banks increase their demand for external funds when the internal cost of capital increases, an aspect in which we add evidence based on the bank-lending channel of monetary policy.…”