Does the prediction of the time of egg hatch of Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae) using a frost day/temperature sum model provide evidence of an increasing temporal mismatch between the time of egg hatch and that of budburst of Quercus robur due to recent global warming?

Abstract

Abstract. Thaumetopoea processionea is a serious defoliator of oak and of medical concern whose abundance has consistently increased throughout Europe during the past two decades. This study validates a previously published frost day/temperature sum model for predicting time of egg hatch of this species using five years of recent field data from South-West Germany. This model proved satisfactory for predicting the time of egg hatch of T. processionea. Hence, the model was used to retrospectively predict the time of egg hatch of T. processionea in the Karlsruhe area, which indicates that the time of egg hatch has fluctuated over the past 130 years. In the last two decades, however, predicted time of egg hatch is much earlier than the long-term average due to the increase in winter and early spring temperatures. Comparison of predicted time of egg hatch of T. processionea and long-term records of the time of foliation of its common host Quercus robur revealed that in the study area the temporal advance in the timing of both events was similar. This is not in accordance with recently published research on spring-feeding folivores, which report a diverging trend in the timing of egg hatch and budburst of their host plants as a consequence of human-induced climate change.

High-Pressure-Sprayed Double Stranded RNA Does Not Induce RNA Interference of a Reporter Gene

“…The climate change alters the spreading of insect species, which may induce damage by feeding and/or by transmitting plant pathogens. For example, several studies have reported the recent invasion of Mediterranean plant pests like Thaumetopoea processionea in Northern European countries, including England, Denmark, and Sweden (Wagenhoff et al, 2014). Moreover, there are many regulatory restrictions on the use of conventional pesticides because of potential ecological and environmental hazard upon application (Robin and Marchand, 2019).…”

Weather-dependent fluctuations in the abundance of the oak processionary moth, Thaumetopoea processionea (Lepidoptera: Notodontidae)

“…The summation of these different effects can have a signifi cant effect on population fl uctuations, outbreaks and damage by forest insects (Mattson & Haack, 1987;Leskó et al, 1995Leskó et al, , 1998Csóka, 1997;Rouault et al, 2006;Dobbertin et al, 2007;Jactel et al, 2012;Klapwijk et al, 2013;Hlásny et al, 2015). the population fl uctuations, as already suggested in several earlier papers (Klapwijk et al, 2013;Wagenhoff & Veit, 2011;Wagenhoff et al, 2013Wagenhoff et al, , 2014. We assume that high spring temperatures have positive effects on the populations as under these conditions development is faster and mortality lower.…”

“…Therefore, we excluded it, although several papers (Wagenhoff & Veit, 2011;Meurisse et al, 2012;Klapwijk et al, 2013) mention that early spring (March and April) temperatures may infl uence populations due to their direct effect on larval survival and in disrupting the synchrony between budburst and egg hatch. However, the effect of this desynchronization is quite plastic, since young larvae may survive 2-3 weeks of starvation (Wagenhoff et al, 2013) and bud burst occurs earlier following mild winters and in warm early springs (Wagenhoff et al, 2014). The positive effect of temperature in the main larval feeding period is likely to be due to faster development shortening their exposure to both abiotic (i.e.…”

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“…The climate change alters the spreading of insect species, which may induce damage by feeding and/or by transmitting plant pathogens. For example, several studies have reported the recent invasion of Mediterranean plant pests like Thaumetopoea processionea in Northern European countries, including England, Denmark, and Sweden (Wagenhoff et al, 2014). Moreover, there are many regulatory restrictions on the use of conventional pesticides because of potential ecological and environmental hazard upon application (Robin and Marchand, 2019).…”