Does the shale gas boom change the natural gas price-production relationship? Evidence from the U.S. market

Guo, Feng; Wang, Quan‐Jing; Chu, Yin; Wen, Jun; Chang, Chun‐Ping

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2019.03.001

Cited by 39 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…The U.S. has experienced dramatic increases in O&NG production since 2005, underpinned by technological developments such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (Caporin and Fontini, 2017;Feng et al, 2019). This shale revolution has transformed the U.S. into the world's top O&NG producer (Gong, 2020).…”

Section: Oandng Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018

Angot¹,

Davel²,

Wiedinmyer³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Atmospheric non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) play an important role in the formation of secondary organic aerosols and ozone. After a multidecade global decline in atmospheric mole fractions of ethane and propane – the most abundant atmospheric NMHCs – previous work has shown a reversal of this trend with increasing atmospheric abundances from 2009 to 2015 in the Northern Hemisphere. These concentration increases were attributed to the unprecedented growth in oil and natural gas (O&NG) production in North America. Here, we supplement this trend analysis building on the long-term (2008–2010; 2012–2020) high-resolution (~3-hour) record of ambient air C2-C7 NMHCs from in-situ measurements at the Greenland Environmental Observatory at Summit station (GEOSummit, 72.58° N, 38.48° W, 3210 m above sea level). We confirm previous findings that the ethane mole fraction significantly increased by +69.0 [+47.4, +73.2; 95 % confidence interval] ppt per year from January 2010 to December 2014. Subsequent measurements, however, reveal a significant decrease by −58.4 [−64.1, −48.9] ppt per year from January 2015 to December 2018. A similar reversal is found for propane. The upturn observed after 2019 suggests, however, that the pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane might only have been temporary. The analysis of 2012–2019 air mass back-trajectories shows that this pause in mole fraction increases can neither be attributed to changes in atmospheric transport nor to changes in regional emissions. Discrete samples collected at other northern-hemisphere baseline sites under the umbrella of the NOAA cooperative global air sampling network show a similar decrease in 2015–2018 and suggest a hemispheric pattern. Here, we further discuss the potential contribution of biomass burning and O&NG emissions, the main sources of ethane and propane, and we conclude that O&NG activities likely played a role in these recent changes. This study, however, highlights the crucial need for better constrained emission inventories.

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Section: Oandng Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018

Angot¹,

Davel²,

Wiedinmyer³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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show abstract

“… o Previous studies have shown that the shale gas/oil boom led to structural breaks in the oil and natural gas markets. 73,74 …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?

Chang

Chu

et al. 2019

Energy & Environment

Self Cite

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This paper firstly investigates the frequency- and time-varying co-movement and causal relationship between crude oil prices (proxied by the West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Dubai and Nigerian Forcados spot oil prices) and geopolitical risks based on the wavelet analysis over the period of 1985–2016. Overall, our results demonstrate significant dynamic co-movement and causality in the varying time–frequency domains. We find high degree of co-movement between geopolitical risks and oil prices at high frequencies (in the short run) for the entire sample period; however, such a correlation does not exist at low frequencies (in the long run) for most of the sample period. We also find distinct patterns of causal relationships between geopolitical risks and oil prices across different benchmark markets. Results are robust when we control for global economic outlook. Our findings provide valuable implications for policy makers and oil market investors based on the dynamic relationship between geopolitical risks and oil prices.

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“…After some 40 years of steadily declining atmospheric ethane and propane mixing ratios, Helmig et al (2016) reported a reversal in this behavior: the analysis of weekly discrete air samples showed that between mid-2009 and mid-2014, ethane abundance at surface sites in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) increased at a rate of 2.9 %-4.7 % per year. These observations and conclusions were further substantiated by solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) ethane column retrievals showing similar increases in the middle to upper tropospheric ethane column (Franco et al, 2015(Franco et al, , 2016Hausmann et al, 2016). The largest increase rates for ethane and propane mixing ratios were found at sites located in the eastern United States and in the North Atlantic region, indicating larger emissions from the central to eastern parts of the United States, with the likely sources being increased emissions from shale O&NG extraction operations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Atmospheric non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) play an important role in the formation of secondary organic aerosols and ozone. After a multidecadal global decline in atmospheric mole fractions of ethane and propane – the most abundant atmospheric NMHCs – previous work has shown a reversal of this trend with increasing atmospheric abundances from 2009 to 2015 in the Northern Hemisphere. These concentration increases were attributed to the unprecedented growth in oil and natural gas (O&NG) production in North America. Here, we supplement this trend analysis building on the long-term (2008–2010; 2012–2020) high-resolution (∼3 h) record of ambient air C2–C7 NMHCs from in situ measurements at the Greenland Environmental Observatory at Summit station (GEOSummit, 72.58 ∘ N, 38.48 ∘ W; 3210 m above sea level). We confirm previous findings that the ethane mole fraction significantly increased by +69.0 [+47.4, +73.2; 95 % confidence interval] ppt yr−1 from January 2010 to December 2014. Subsequent measurements, however, reveal a significant decrease by −58.4 [−64.1, −48.9] ppt yr−1 from January 2015 to December 2018. A similar reversal is found for propane. The upturn observed after 2019 suggests, however, that the pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane might only have been temporary. Discrete samples collected at other northern hemispheric baseline sites under the umbrella of the NOAA cooperative global air sampling network show a similar decrease in 2015–2018 and suggest a hemispheric pattern. Here, we further discuss the potential contribution of biomass burning and O&NG emissions (the main sources of ethane and propane) and conclude that O&NG activities likely played a role in these recent changes. This study highlights the crucial need for better constrained emission inventories.

show abstract

Does the shale gas boom change the natural gas price-production relationship? Evidence from the U.S. market

Cited by 39 publications

References 43 publications

Temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018

Temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018

Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?

Temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018

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