2016
DOI: 10.1177/0738894216658675
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Domestic diversion: Selective targeting of minority out-groups

Abstract: Domestic political use of force is a strategy for political leaders to divert the public’s attention away from economic instability and rebuild political capital. But, diversionary incentives are not the only motivation; the targeted vulnerable minority’s capabilities are important. We analyze how the combination of diversionary incentive and out-group mobilization capabilities influences leaders’ decision-calculus. Embattled leaders make strategic decisions about both the target and the adequate severity of f… Show more

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Cited by 41 publications
(16 citation statements)
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“…However, there is substantial evidence that suggests that repression is positively associated with an increase in support for terrorism (Crenshaw, 1981;Walsh & Piazza, 2010). 11 See Jung (2014a,b), Klein & Tokdemir (2016), and Tokdemir & Mark (2018) for a discussion of the importance of target selection in the diversionary theory of war. 12 Is our argument about the mistreatment of refugees in the wake of security crises unique to refugees or does it apply to other migrants or minority groups as well?…”
Section: Security Crises and State Violence Against Refugeesmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…However, there is substantial evidence that suggests that repression is positively associated with an increase in support for terrorism (Crenshaw, 1981;Walsh & Piazza, 2010). 11 See Jung (2014a,b), Klein & Tokdemir (2016), and Tokdemir & Mark (2018) for a discussion of the importance of target selection in the diversionary theory of war. 12 Is our argument about the mistreatment of refugees in the wake of security crises unique to refugees or does it apply to other migrants or minority groups as well?…”
Section: Security Crises and State Violence Against Refugeesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“… 11 See Jung (2014a,b), Klein & Tokdemir (2016), and Tokdemir & Mark (2018) for a discussion of the importance of target selection in the diversionary theory of war. …”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The POSVAR dataset will not only allow scholars to test some of these theoretical claims, but will also be of great use to answer diverse questions on political violence, including the diffusion and onset of civil conflicts (Forsberg, 2014; Miller & Ritter, 2014; Salehyan & Gleditsch, 2006; Salehyan, 2009), one-sided violence and repression (Danneman & Ritter, 2014; Fisk, 2018; Wright & Moorthy, 2018), insurgent recruitment strategies (Eck, 2014; Hegghammer, 2013; Weinstein, 2005), terrorism (Choi & Salehyan, 2013; Milton, Spencer & Findley, 2013), pro-government militia behaviors (Carey, Mitchell & Lowe, 2013), and scapegoating and domestic diversion (Klein & Tokdemir, 2016). Research on refugee integration (Strang & Ager, 2010; Valenta & Bunar, 2010) can also benefit from the dataset.…”
Section: Why a New Dataset?mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…When governments are confronted by a weakening domestic economy, domestic unrest, or political turmoil, they are incentivized to divert the public's attention through political uses of force (Clark, Fordham, and Nordstrom 2016;Fordham 1998Fordham , 2005Levy 1989;Meernik 1994). Traditionally theorized at the international level, a growing body of literature shows similar processes occurring at the intrastate level in the form of domestic diversion where the targets tend to be vulnerable minority groups (Klein and Tokdemir 2019;Tir and Jasinski 2008). Complicating a government's political use of force calculation is that the conditions motivating the use of force are often publicly visible, which allows potential targets to react to these motivations and attempt to strategically avoid conflict by becoming less confrontational (Smith 1996(Smith , 1998Fordham 2005).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…While the theory of domestic diversion has found empirical validation (Klein and Tokdemir 2019;Tir and Jasinski 2008), the yearly and quarterly level of analysis obfuscates shorter-term strategic calculations. Conflict dynamics can change rapidly as geographic distances are shorter and potential targets (i.e., minority out-groups) present a convincing collective threat.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%