Downscaling of Future Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Addis Ababa under Climate Change

Abstract

One of the recent advances in climate science research is the development of global general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate changes in climatic elements of the present and future, which helps us to determine consequences earlier and prepare for necessary adaptation measures. However, it is difficult to apply the raw data of GCMs at a local scale, such as the urban scale, without downscaling due to coarse resolution. This study, therefore, statistically downscaled daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation in 30-year intervals from the second generation of the Earth System Model (CanESM2) and Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) Scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1B and A2, to examine future changes and their extremes. Two representative meteorological stations (Entoto at high elevation and Addis Ababa at downtown and medium elevation) were selected for model calibration and validation in the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). Twelve core temperature and precipitation indices were selected to assess temperature changes and precipitation extremes. For the largest changes the results showed that the maximum temperature increases were in the range of 0.9 • C (RCP4.5) in 2020 to 2.1 • C (CGCM3A2) in 2080 at Addis Ababa Observatory. The minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.3 • C (RCP4.5) in 2020 and 1.0 • C in 2080 (CGCM3A1B). While the changes in maximum temperature are lower at Entoto station compared to Addis Ababa Observatory, the highest minimum temperature change is projected at Addis Ababa Observatory, which ranges from 0.25 • C in the 2020s to 1.04 • C in 2080 according to the CGCM3 model. Except for the coldest nights (TNn), the mean temperature and other temperature indices will continue to increase to the end of this century. The highest precipitation change is projected by CGCM3A2 and CanESM2 RCP8.5 at an increase of about 11.8% and 16.62% by 2080. The highest total precipitation increase is 29% (RCP4.5) in winter and 20.9% (RCP8.5) in summer by 2080. There is high interseasonal variability in changes of extreme events. The topographic role will diminish in influence on the air temperature distribution due to the high rate of urbanization. The rise in temperature will exacerbate the urban heat highland effects in warm seasons and an increase in precipitation is expected along with a possible risk of flooding due to a low level of infrastructure development and a high rate of urbanization.

GIS based quantification and mapping of climate change vulnerability hotspots in Addis Ababa

“…The past record on flooding in Addis Ababa indicates, it was increasing from time to time. There are a wide evidence that the flooding in Addis will be continue to increase to the end of this century due to climate change (CLUVA 2011;Ward and Lasage 2009;McSweeney et al 2010;Feyissa et al 2018) and poor urban storm water management in Addis Ababa. The exposure layer of climate change vulnerability identified in these analyses indicates the flood is common in poor infrastructure areas, low quality housed but dense population along streams.…”

“…These studies reveal that climate change and variability severely affect economic conditions livelihoods and agricultural production and food security, water resources and health (Gebregiziabhre et al 2016, Legese et al 2016, Tafesse et al 2016, Melese 2016, Abebe and Kebede 2017, Amare and Simane 2017. The impact of climate change in urban scale is also studied in towns like Dire Dawa (Billi et al 2015), Addis Ababa (CLUVA 2011;Cochrane and Costolanski 2013;Birhanu et al 2016;Feyissa et al 2018) indicating the identified cities are vulnerable to climate change impacts mainly flooding and urban heat.…”

Climate Change and Trend Analysis of Temperature in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

“…Using various General Circulation Model, Feyissa et al. suggested future climatic changes and argued that rise in temperature will exacerbate the urban heat highland effects in warm seasons and an increase in precipitation (Feyissa et al 2018). Some environmental harms such as high temperature and extreme rainfall, which results in flooding in Addis Ababa, could be signals of climate change (Birhanu et al 2016).…”

Application of transform software for downscaling global climate model EdGCM results in north-eastern Bangladesh

“…Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) is higher in downscaled temperature than IPCC. Using CGCM3A2 and RCP 4.5 the maximum temperatures increases from 0.03°C-0.21°C in 2020 [41].…”