Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model

Eriksson, Ljusk Ola; Forsell, Nicklas; Eggers, Jeannette; Snäll, Tord

doi:10.3390/f11050500

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Our approach links the demand on forest products projected by global scale scenarios of socioeconomic development to a landscape scale demand, thus ensuring the relevance and adequacy of the landscape management scenarios. This adequate downscaling is necessary since landscape scale harvest activity can deviate from the national average (Eriksson et al, 2020) projected by global scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We applied GLOBIOM with 59 economic regions (27 in the EU) and for each SSP, we projected the future wood demand for Sweden at the national level (see Figure S1). National demand was next downscaled to projected harvest at landscape level using a national partial‐equilibrium forest sector model (SweFor, Eriksson et al, 2020, details in Appendix S2).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For each SSP-RCP combination, global land use models such as GLOBIOM (Havlík et al, 2015) can simulate the corresponding implication for the forest sector and project the future wood demand for countries and regions (Lauri et al, 2017). Furthermore, we can now downscale future global demand for forest products to landscape-scale demand for wood assortments (Eriksson et al, 2020), forming the quantitative objectives of optimization of forestry and conservation planning given the demand resulting from global socioeconomic developments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand

Moor

Eggers

Fabritius

et al. 2022

Journal of Applied Ecology

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1. Global policy for future biodiversity conservation is ultimately implemented at landscape and local scales. In parallel, green infrastructure planning needs to account for socioeconomic dynamics at national and global scales. Progress towards policy goals must, in turn, be evaluated at the landscape scale. Evaluation tools are often environmental quality indicators. How developments of different organism groups will relate to developments of these indicators is unclear.2. We evaluated three management scenarios for a 100,000 hectare boreal forest landscape in the coming 100 years in terms of their effects on the future habitat suitability/occupancy of four bird species, six wood-decaying fungi and one lichen, most of them red-listed. The scenarios optimize financial returns and account for downscaled projected global demand of wood given a middle-of-the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2). We contrast a reference scenario meeting the wood demand against an economy scenario with no upper harvest limit, and a green infrastructure scenario optimizing the levels of environmental indicators. Environmental indicators generally reached the highest and lowest levels in thegreen infrastructure and economy scenarios, respectively. Most indicators increased further in set-asides. The profit was 14% lower in the green infrastructure and 2% higher in the economy than in the reference scenario.4. In the green infrastructure scenario, the species increased on average by 135%, followed by the reference scenario (+65%), and the economy scenario (+47%).All bird species increased in the green infrastructure scenario, while in the other scenarios, only hazel grouse increased and Siberian tit instead decreased. Most fungi increased in the production forest of the green infrastructure scenario but decreased in the economy scenario. All increased in set-asides. In all scenarios, the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria increased, owing to host tree retention. Synthesis and applications.Effects of global socioeconomic developments can be downscaled and accounted for in planning landscape-scale forest and

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand

Moor

Eggers

Fabritius

et al. 2022

Journal of Applied Ecology

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…Frontiers in Forests and Global Change 12 frontiersin.org Lämås et al 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1163105 sector model to downscale global timber demand to national level (Eriksson et al, 2020). Since most management decisions involve several objectives, it can be of interest to investigate the conflicts and synergies between objectives.…”

Section: Application Within Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The multi-faceted Swedish Heureka forest decision support system: context, functionality, design, and 10 years experiences of its use

Lämås

Sängstuvall

Öhman

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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For several decades, computerized forest decision support systems (DSS) have helped managers and decision makers to analyze different management options and supported the search for preferred management alternatives. In Sweden, a country rich in forests and with a long tradition in intensive forest management, such systems have been developed and available since the 1970s. Changes in societal as well as in forest owners’ preferences and objectives in the 1990s led to a need for forest DSS handling broader perspectives compared to precedent single-objective timber-oriented systems. In Sweden, this led to the initiation of a research programme in the beginning of the 2000s aiming at developing a versatile and multi-objective forest DSS, resulting in the first version of the Heureka forest DSS released in 2009. The system handles several forest values, such as timber and biofuel production, carbon sequestration, dead wood dynamics, habitat for species, recreation and susceptibility to forest damages (spruce bark beetle, wind-throw and root rot). It contains a suite of software for different problem settings and geographical scales and uses simulation as well as optimization techniques. Three software handle projections of the forest using a common core of growth and yield models for simulating forest dynamics. A fourth software, built for multi-criteria decision analysis and including a web-version, enables also group decision making and participatory planning. For more than 10 years, the Heureka system has been used in teaching, environmental analysis, research and as decision support in practical forestry. For example, several research groups using the system for analyses in different problem areas have so far published more than 80 scientific papers. The system is used for nation-wide forest impact analysis for policy support and all large and many medium-sized forest owners use it for their long-term forest planning, meaning that it directly influences forest management decisions and activities on more than 50% of the Swedish forest area. Besides presenting the present system and its use, we also discuss lessons learned and potential future development.

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“…Daigneault et al [30] designed specific indicators for SSPs involving the forestry sector based on detailed descriptions of Climate Mitigation International, including economic demand, population size, technology level, and land use policy. These SSP scenarios are applied to analyze the strong impact on the forestry sector by comparing economic and social factors through the global timber trade models [24,31,32]. Although the global models identified projected national ecosystem carbon sinks and timber market in aggregate, they failed to consider spatial patterns and sub-classifying forests.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Carbon Sequestration and Timber Yields from Chinese Commercial Forests under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Liu

Huang

et al. 2023

Forests

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Socio-economic status, technologies, and policies are key factors affecting forest management planning and forest ecosystem functions. This study applied shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to a forest-management model framework. The potential timber yields and carbon sinks of spatially allocate alternatives were examined by quantifying their consequent changes at the regional tree species level in Chinese commercial forests (CFs) under the harvest and afforestation restrictions. The results indicate that the annual carbon sequestration rate of China’s CFs over the next 50 years is estimated to be 152.0–162.5 Tg/a, which can offset approximately 5% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions identified in 2019. Newly planted and regenerated forests can contribute more than 80% of this offset. The annual timber supply capacity is estimated to be 119.2–142.4 million m3/a with current policy interventions, which is not enough to meet the demand for China’s timber market. Although most existing forests are managed as the primary source for forest goods and carbon service, the total commercial forest area changes are not as large as expected, resulting in only 2.0–10.6% differences. Our results also demonstrate that socioeconomic factors (e.g., social preference, carbon price, and forest logging and silvicultural practices) have a strong impact on carbon sinks but a minor impact on timber yields timber, except for improving harvesting and processing technologies. Establishing local long-term effective forest management systems and making afforestation and regeneration as a priority at the national level are suggested to comprehensively enhance the carbon sequestration and timber-supplying abilities of regional CFs.

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Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model

Cited by 8 publications

References 43 publications

Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand

Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand

The multi-faceted Swedish Heureka forest decision support system: context, functionality, design, and 10 years experiences of its use

Future Carbon Sequestration and Timber Yields from Chinese Commercial Forests under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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