Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands, Africa

Chou, Sin Chan; Lyra, André; Gomes, Jorge L.; Martins, Minella Alves; Resende, Nicole Costa; Tavares, Priscila; Dereczynski, Claudine Pereira; Pilotto, Isabel L.; Martins, Alessandro Marques; Carvalho, Luís Felipe Alves de; Onofre, José Luiz Lima; Major, Idalécio; Penhor, Manuel; Santana, Adérito

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05212-7

Cited by 20 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The main findings regarding climate projection in STP (Chou et al, 2020) concluded that, although the projections for temperature in both islands showed a warming tendency, varying from 1.5 to 2.0°C in RCP4.5 and reaching 3.5°C in RCP8.5, the projected precipitation points out large uncertainties between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, precipitation increases in the wet season and slightly decreases in the dry season.…”

Section: Eta Regional Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The high-resolution climate change projections are provided by the Eta regional model (Mesinger et al 2012;Chou et al 2012;Lyra et al, 2017;Chou et al 2020). The Eta model uses the vertical eta coordinate, which is more appropriate for simulations in high resolution in regions of complex topography (Mesinger, 1984), such as STP.…”

Section: Eta Regional Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate simulation dataset is a 4-km resolution downscaling (Chou et al, 2020) of the global climate model CanESM2 (Arora et al 2011) for the periods between 1971 and 2000, and between 2041 and 2070, under the RCP8.5 and the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. The downscaled scenario has shown the skill to reproduce reasonably the climate of STP.…”

Section: Eta Regional Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…High-resolution climate change projections for the future period 2041-2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario (Chou et al, 2020) indicate precipitation reduction varying from −25 to −100 mm/month. Precipitation reduction is projected in almost all the months of the year, except in January and December, when projections show increased precipitation of up to 100 mm/month in some areas of Caué, Lembá, and Cantagalo, and in August, when projections show no changes.…”

Section: Cocoa (Theobroma Cacao) Crop Risk Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, it is necessary to use very-high-resolution models to generate detailed climate change projections and assess the impacts. In this context, the downscaled climate scenarios for STP using regional climate model Eta (Chou et al, 2020) were used for developing the crop risk index (CRI). This research aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.), pepper (Piper nigrum L. and Piper Guinesse), taro (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott), and maize (Zea mays L.) in terms of crop yield, disease susceptibility, and vulnerability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and Principe

et al. 2021

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Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular country in the west coast of Central Africa. The small dimensions of the islands and the limited natural resources put these islands under highly vulnerable to climate change. To assess the possible future impacts and risks on their agricultural activities, the high-resolution 4-km downscaled climate change projections using Eta regional climate model are used. A crop risk index (CRI) is proposed to assess the risk of climate change on cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.), pepper (Piper nigrum L. and Piper guinesse L.), taro (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott), and maize (Zea mays L.). The index takes into account the vulnerability to climate conditions and the crop yield in the future, and it is classified into very-high, high, moderate, low, and very-low. The climate change projections indicate increase in the risk of taro crop, partly due to thermal stress and partly due to the susceptibility to the leaf blight crop disease in taro. The risk of production of the pepper crop is very-high, mainly due to water stress. In mountain regions, the greater risk is due to the thermal stress caused by low temperatures. The cocoa crop is at risk due to water stress, mainly in the northwestern part of the Sao Tome Island, where major local production occurs. The projection indicates increase of the area with very-high risk to maize crops due to the increase of thermal stress and susceptibility to rust. In addition, in parts of the coastal regions, the risk changed from very-low to high risk, due to the low productivity potential. In general, the risks of the four major crops of Sao Tome and Principe increase in the future climate conditions.

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Section: Eta Regional Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Eta Regional Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Eta Regional Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cocoa (Theobroma Cacao) Crop Risk Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and Principe

et al. 2021

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Green and Hawksbill Sea turtles of Eastern Atlantic: New insights into a globally important rookery in the Gulf of Guinea

Ferreira‐Airaud,

Vieira,

Branco

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Sea turtles are critical components of marine ecosystems, and their conservation is important for Ocean Governance and Global Planet Health. However, there is limited knowledge of their ecology in the Gulf of Guinea. To fill this knowledge gap, this study presents the first integrative assessment of green and hawksbill turtles in the region, combining nesting surveys over 9 years and telemetry data, to offer insights into these population dynamics, and behaviours, including nesting preferences, morphological and reproductive parameters, diving patterns and inter‐nesting core‐use areas. Both green and hawksbill turtles are likely making a recovery on São Tomé, potentially driven by sustained conservation efforts. There are preliminary indications of recovery, but we interpret this cautiously. Coupled with satellite tracking, this study estimated that 482 to 736 green turtles and 135 to 217 hawksbills nest on the beaches of São Tomé. Their movements overlap significantly with a proposed Marine Protected Area (MPA), which suggests they may be well placed for conservation if managed appropriately. However, the presence of artisanal fisheries and emerging threats, such as sand mining and unregulated tourism, highlight the urgent need for robust management strategies that align global conservation objectives with local socioeconomic realities. This study significantly enhances our understanding of the ecology and conservation needs of the green and hawksbill turtles in the Gulf of Guinea. The insights gleaned here can contribute to the development of tailored conservation strategies that benefit these populations and the ecosystem services upon which they depend.

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Physical Geography of the Gulf of Guinea Oceanic Islands

Ceríaco

Santos

Lima

et al. 2022

Biodiversity of the Gulf of Guinea Oceanic Islands

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The Gulf of Guinea, in the Atlantic coast of Central Africa, has three oceanic islands that arose as part of the Cameroon Volcanic Line. From northeast to southwest these are Príncipe (139 km2), São Tomé (857 km2), and Annobón (17 km2). Although relatively close to the adjacent mainland, the islands have distinct climactic and geomorphologic characteristics, and have remained isolated throughout their geological history. Consequently, they have developed a unique biodiversity, rich in endemic species. We provide an integrated overview of the physical setting of the islands, including their geographic location, geological origin, topography, geology and soils, climate zones, and prevailing wind and ocean currents—key features that underlie the evolution of their biodiversity.

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Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands, Africa

Cited by 20 publications

References 61 publications

Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and Principe

Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and Principe

Green and Hawksbill Sea turtles of Eastern Atlantic: New insights into a globally important rookery in the Gulf of Guinea

Physical Geography of the Gulf of Guinea Oceanic Islands

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