Drilling and Blasting to Learn Scenario Construction: Experimenting with Causal Layered Analysis as a Disruption of Scenario Work

Abstract

Scenario thinking is one of the key elements of futures studies, and therefore, “Scenario Thinking” is one of the first compulsory courses in the Master’s Degree Programme in Futures Studies at the University of Turku. Scenario methods are continuously evolving, and our educational practices must reflect recent developments while giving a clear outline of the big picture. Furthermore, increasing interest is being taken in hybrid methods, and such hybridity can also be introduced to teaching scenario thinking. This article discusses an experiment of using causal layered analysis (CLA) to complement and deepen scenarios made by student groups for a Finnish company during an introductory course on scenario thinking. During a first-year master’s degree course, a two-hour CLA session was conducted, and student groups were instructed to include the results into their scenario reports. From a methodological point of view, we discuss using CLA as a disruption in the middle of the scenario process to increase reflexivity. From a pedagogical point of view, we discuss how a relatively complex method combination (CLA and scenarios) can be made accessible to first-year master’s students conducting their first scenario study. As material, we use our own firsthand experiences from the scenario course and the CLA session as well as a subsequent survey with students. The intention of the paper is to quickly distribute educational practices for assessment by the futures education community and, thus, contribute to improving the state of futures studies and foresight education.

Factors Affecting Artificial Intelligence and Management of Institutional Response to the Event of Coronavirus in Pakistan

“…It also includes funding methods to support common outcomes. Here, the organization is shifting its agenda from shortterm emergency response plans to a national policy model with a long-term funding window of three to five years (Minkkinen et al, 2019). The inclusion of programs helps to reduce the virus as a guaranteed goal.…”

Análisis causal estratificado (CLA) como herramienta para el trabajo inter y transdisciplinario

“…El CLA proporciona un marco interpretativo para la deconstrucción y reconstrucción de problemas complejos (Inayatullah, 2004;Kenny, 2013;Bishop y Dzidic, 2014;Patrouilleau, 2020). Permite analizar los problemas a partir de la integración de diversos tipos de saberes, así como de las perspectivas vinculadas a la experiencia vivida por los individuos involucrados en un problema dado (Minkkinen et al, 2019). Ha sido implementado para comprender diferentes problemas en una variedad de entornos (empresas, universidades, organizaciones internacionales, organizaciones gubernamentales y no gubernamentales), así como también en numerosos talleres de aprendizaje colectivo (Inayatullah, 2012;Patrouilleau, 2020).…”

“…El CLA es un método versátil que se puede aplicar de muchas maneras (Minkkinen et al, 2019). Se comporta tanto deconstructiva como reconstructivamente, pudiéndose utilizar para desafiar una situación compleja, reconstruir un futuro o invitar a los involucrados a generar lecturas alternativas (Bussey, 2008;Inayatullah, 2017).…”

Exploring the Disruptiveness of Cryptocurrencies: A Causal Layered Analysis-Based Approach

“…Previous research in futures studies has explored the possibility of forecasting discontinuities on the macro level [30], the social disruption intertwined with the diffusion of disruptive technological innovations [18], or the possibility of utilizing diverse foresight methods in identifying disruptions [31][32][33]. Against this backdrop, our approach to distinguishing disruptive change from normal change in the context of cryptocurrencies answers the call for understanding the multi-level nature of disruption [13].…”

“…CLA [23,34] is an analytical tool that enables viewing a phenomenon from four different perspectives conceptualized as four analytical levels. Since its introduction, the CLA has been widely adopted as an analytical aid in theorizing and as a useful tool in workshop environments, utilized in analyzing complex phenomena in a variety of fields [31,32,[35][36][37]. The analytical levels of CLA are traversed up and down to understand the phenomenon on each level in addition to tracing the linkages in between them.…”