The article discusses possible futures of selforganising peer-to-peer work through four transformative scenarios constructed in the Neo-Carbon Energy research project. These futures images probe the futures of work from the perspective of peer-to-peer organisations and distributed renewable energy production. The scenarios lay a systemic view on the development of societies, studying how decentralised renewable energy with low costs could affect society and its social relations. We anticipate the emergence of a digital meaning society, in which the economy is based on the production of meanings and meaningfulness. The article analyses the results of a futures workshop on the futures of work by classifying them to seven core themes. The results of the analysis are compared to related implications for policy-making, and to the Millennium Project Work/Technology Scenarios 2050 for international perspectives. The article presents possible disruptions and key emerging issues, including the novel drivers for inequalities of peer-to-peer work.
At many levels of society—in regions, corporations, and among citizens—awareness is increasing, and actions towards more sustainable energy are being taken. The key drivers of this transition have been climate change, the scarcity of resources, and environmental consciousness. The speed of change and its impacts on the energy system transition are still unknown. It is therefore important to anticipate probable, preferable, or avoidable future paths that will contribute to the discussion of the direction and conditions of such futures. In this article, five energy scenarios are presented for Finland until 2030. The scenarios are based on a two-round Delphi application, in which energy experts were first interviewed and then a survey phase was conducted. We used cluster analysis to construct the scenarios and arranged the responses to open-ended questions as narratives to deepen the scenarios. Based on the cluster analysis, five clusters were constructed, namely, (1) business as usual, (2) energy saving and decarbonisation, (3) climate-friendly transformation, (4) green growth, and (5) degrowth. These scenarios illustrate how varying sets of drivers of change in society, and a set of energy policy measures, are connected with energy futures. Expert information thus organised can be used to advise policymakers when designing future climate and energy policy.
Scenario thinking is one of the key elements of futures studies, and therefore, “Scenario Thinking” is one of the first compulsory courses in the Master’s Degree Programme in Futures Studies at the University of Turku. Scenario methods are continuously evolving, and our educational practices must reflect recent developments while giving a clear outline of the big picture. Furthermore, increasing interest is being taken in hybrid methods, and such hybridity can also be introduced to teaching scenario thinking. This article discusses an experiment of using causal layered analysis (CLA) to complement and deepen scenarios made by student groups for a Finnish company during an introductory course on scenario thinking. During a first-year master’s degree course, a two-hour CLA session was conducted, and student groups were instructed to include the results into their scenario reports. From a methodological point of view, we discuss using CLA as a disruption in the middle of the scenario process to increase reflexivity. From a pedagogical point of view, we discuss how a relatively complex method combination (CLA and scenarios) can be made accessible to first-year master’s students conducting their first scenario study. As material, we use our own firsthand experiences from the scenario course and the CLA session as well as a subsequent survey with students. The intention of the paper is to quickly distribute educational practices for assessment by the futures education community and, thus, contribute to improving the state of futures studies and foresight education.
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