Driver Speed Behavior on Circular Curves of Undivided Two-Lane Rural Roads

Russo, Francesca; Fric, Sanja; Biancardo, Salvatore Antonio; Gavran, Dejan

doi:10.3141/2472-14

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…These studies did not consider the effect of inter vehicle interaction in the prior segment. However, a few studies considered tracking of vehicles throughout the study zone (i.e., in the horizontal curve and its preceding tangent) for the free-flow condition (Fitzsimmons et al 2013a(Fitzsimmons et al , 2013bRusso et al 2015Russo et al , 2016. They have used Global Positioning System (GPS) fitted vehicles and roadside laser detectors, sensors or video cameras for the purpose (Fitzsimmons et al 2013a;Glennon et al 1983;Hashim et al 2016;Russo et al 2015;Camacho-Torregrosa et al 2013;Pérez-Zuriaga et al 2013).…”

Section: Study Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB 2010) suggests that vehicles travelling with headway equal to or greater than a threshold headway value are considered as free flowing. For rural highways, several researchers have adopted the threshold headway value as 5 s (Fitzpatrick et al 2000a;Hashim et al 2016;Gong, Stamatiadis 2008;Poe et al 1996;Russo et al 2015Russo et al , 2016. However, weak lane discipline in multi-lane divided highways can influence vehicles (Mathew et al 2015;Mallikarjuna, Rao 2011;Gunay 2003Gunay , 2007Bangarraju et al 2016;Drew 1968;Case et al 1953;May 1959;Rawson 2015) prior to centre of the horizontal curve.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Operating Speed Prediction Model as a Tool for Consistency Based Geometric Design of Four-Lane Divided Highways

et al. 2019

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Researchers have studied two-lane rural highways to predict the operating speed on horizontal curves and correlated it with safety. However, the driving characteristics of four-lane-divided highways are different. Weak lane discipline is observed in these facilities, which influences vehicle speed in adjacent lane or space. So, irrespective of its lane or lateral position, vehicles in four-lane divided highways are considered free flowing only when it maintains the minimum threshold headway from any lead vehicle. Examination of two conditions is proposed to ensure the free flow. Vehicles meeting both conditions, when tracked from the preceding tangent section till the centre of the horizontal curve, are considered as free flowing. The speed data of such free flowing passenger cars at the centre of eighteen horizontal curves on four-lane divided highways is analysed to develop a linear operating speed prediction model. The developed model depends on curve radius and preceding tangent length. The operating speed of passenger car in four-lane divided highways is influenced by horizontal curve of radius 360 m or less. Further, longer tangent would yield higher operating speed at the centre of the curve. Finally, two nomograms are suggested for conventional design, consistency based design and geometric design consistency evaluation of four-lane divided horizontal curves.

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Section: Study Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operating Speed Prediction Model as a Tool for Consistency Based Geometric Design of Four-Lane Divided Highways

et al. 2019

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“…One way to accommodate to human information processing limitations is to design roadway environments by driver expectations: the design of a road in according to the standards and, consequently, reflecting the expectations of drivers, creates a proper alignment consistency (HSM 2010). Castro et al (2013), Morris and Donnell (2014), Russo et al (2015;2016) have verified the operating speed as one of the parameters to most influence a safe driving. One of how operating speeds are used in ensuring design consistency is using speed profiles.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Countermeasures to Improve Road Alignment Consistency Of Undivided Rural Roads

Russo

Biancardo

2017

The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering

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The research aims to assess the relationships between the crash rates and road consistency. Design consistency assessment is a tool employed by designers to improve road safety. The case study involved a rural two-lane two-way road in Southern Italy located on a flat terrain without spiral transition curves between tangent segments and circular curves. Road alignment consistency was examined in two steps: by adopting standards in force in Italy based on the design speed profile and by plotting operating speed profile to determine the area bounded by the speed profile and the average weighted speed, and the standard deviation of operating speeds for each geometric segment. Operating speed prediction model, which returns the 85th percentile of the speed distribution of the only cars under free flow conditions, right weather conditions, and lighting was adopted. A negative exponential function was performed to predict the global consistency of a road as a whole. Finally, a model for predicting the crash rate was calibrated, confirming an increase of design consistency when the crash rates decrease significantly. The consistency model represents a useful tool during the geometric design process or the evaluation process for two-lane rural highways.

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“…In summary, numerous studies have been conducted on the subject of time-series analysis and trends of road traffic crashes in several parts of the world. However, other studies have followed different approached focusing on speed and safety issues, such as Russo et al [22,23]. ARIMA models were among the most commonly used models for analysis and forecasting.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Practical Minimum Sample Size for Road Crash Time‐Series Prediction Models

Hassouna

Al‐Sahili

2020

Advances in Civil Engineering

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Road crashes are problems facing the transportation sector. Crash data in many countries are available only for the past 10 to 20 years, which makes it difficult to determine whether the data are sufficient to establish reasonable and accurate prediction rates. In this study, the effect of sample size (number of years used to develop a prediction model) on the crash prediction accuracy using Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was investigated using crash data for years 1971–2015. Based on the availability of annual crash records, road crash data for four selected countries (Denmark, Turkey, Germany, and Israel) were used to develop the crash prediction models based on different sample sizes (45, 35, 25, and 15 years). Then, crash data for 2016 and 2017 were used to verify the accuracy of the developed models. Furthermore, crash data for Palestine were used to test the validity of the results. The used data included fatality, injury, and property damage crashes. The results showed similar trends in the models’ prediction accuracy for all four countries when predicting road crashes for year 2016. Decreasing the sample sizes led to less prediction accuracy up to a sample size of 25; then, the accuracy increased for the 15-year sample size. Whereas there was no specific trend in the prediction accuracy for year 2017, a higher range of prediction error was also obtained. It is concluded that the prediction accuracy would vary based on the varying socioeconomic, traffic safety programs and development conditions of the country over the study years. For countries with steady and stable conditions, modeling using larger sample sizes would yield higher accuracy models with higher prediction capabilities. As for countries with less steady and stable conditions, modeling using smaller sample sizes (15 years, for example) would lead to high accuracy models with good prediction capabilities. Therefore, it is recommended that the socioeconomic and traffic safety program status of the country is considered before selecting the practical minimum sample size that would give an acceptable prediction accuracy, therefore saving efforts and time spent in collecting data (more is not always better). Moreover, based on the data analysis results, long-term ARIMA prediction models should be used with caution.

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Driver Speed Behavior on Circular Curves of Undivided Two-Lane Rural Roads

Cited by 9 publications

References 14 publications

Operating Speed Prediction Model as a Tool for Consistency Based Geometric Design of Four-Lane Divided Highways

Operating Speed Prediction Model as a Tool for Consistency Based Geometric Design of Four-Lane Divided Highways

Countermeasures to Improve Road Alignment Consistency Of Undivided Rural Roads

Practical Minimum Sample Size for Road Crash Time‐Series Prediction Models

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