Drought Impacts on Managed Forests

Raev, I.; Rosnev, B.

doi:10.4324/9781351159524-12

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…Raev et al [57] focused on the fate of BG's forested areas impacted by the evolution of more arid conditions for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 intervals under four examined RCP emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). According to the IDM's estimations based on temperature and precipitation data with a relatively low spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) and the adopted IDM classification scheme, a substantial sprawling of semiarid conditions (IDM values of 10-25) is projected to occur by 2070 over most of the Bulgarian territory for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.…”

Section: Bulgaria (Bg)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following estimations of the IDM for the 1961-2015 period, Vlăduţ et al [56] illustrated the predominance of semihumid conditions within southern Romania and northern Bulgaria and characterised the western and parts of the central sector of the Danube Valley as the most susceptible to bioclimatic warming and drying in both countries. Raev et al [57] classified the current bioclimate of Bulgaria and documented the future vulnerability of the country's forests owing to the projected aridisation for 2050 and 2070 under the RCP emissions scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projecting Bioclimatic Change over the South-Eastern European Agricultural and Natural Areas via Ultrahigh-Resolution Analysis of the de Martonne Index

2023

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The changing climate is closely related to changes in the bioclimate. This research deals with the present bioclimate and its projected evolution over the entirety of the natural and agricultural lands of south-eastern Europe and individual countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo, N. Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia). For this purpose, an ultrahigh spatial resolution of the de Martonne bioclimatic index pattern was elaborated and analysed for the first time. The survey is performed over the reference period (1981–2010) and future time frames (2011–2040; 2041–2070; 2071–2100) under SSP370 and SSP585 emission scenarios. On a territorial level, both natural and agricultural areas appear as highly impacted by the future changes of bioclimate; the highest xerothermic trend is expected to influence the latter areas, mostly in 2071–2100 and under the higher emission scenario. The natural areas will face an expansion in the semidry class from 0.9% (of the total area) during the reference period to 5.6% during 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario as the dominant extremely humid class falls from 53.5% to 32.9% for the same periods and scenario. On the other hand, agricultural areas will face a more intense xerothermic alteration going from 4.9% to 17.7% for the semidry class and from 41.1% to 23.5% for the dominant very humid class for the same periods and scenario. This study presents the spatial statistics per country for the selected scenarios and periods to provide information for stakeholders. This study’s results highlight the necessity for intensifying adaptation plans and actions aiming at the feasibility of agricultural practices and the conservation of natural areas.

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Section: Bulgaria (Bg)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%