Dust load and rainfall characteristics and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various warming scenarios

Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

doi:10.1002/2017jd027451

Cited by 22 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…The present study utilized the historical and shared socio economic pathway (ssp245 and ssp585) simulations of three different Earth System models (ESM) which had participated in World Climate Research Programme‐CMIP6. The selection of these models has been done based on the availability of the datasets for the parameters like the precipitation types (snowfall and rainfall, u, v, w winds, and air temperature for historical, ssp245 and ssp585 scenario where the ensemble members of the “atmosphere realm” of each of these CMIP6 models has been utilized based on the findings and suggestion from the following previous studies (Menon et al, 2013; Sabeerali et al ., 2012; Singh et al ., 2017, 2019; Kundu and Singh, 2020). Therefore, experimental analysis has been carried out for each over three different scenarios—the historical scenario (1981–2014), ssp245, and ssp585 scenario (2066–2100) for 35 years each.…”

Section: Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

Banerjee

Singh

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In the context of widely reported climate change over the mountainous region, the present work addresses the notable changes in the seasonal precipitation dynamics over the NWH region under two different future warming scenarios [socioeconomic pathway 245 (SSP245) and socio economic pathway 585 (SSP585)]. Using three coupled climate models which participated in the Climate Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we focus on the alterations of the spatio‐temporal pattern of solid and liquid precipitation in respective seasons under future warming (2066–2100) scenarios with respect to the historical time period (1981–2014). Intercomparative validation of the CMIP6 data sets has been carried out against the GPCP and ERA‐5 reanalysis datasets where the multimodel mean (MMM) product has performed well (r value = 0.63) compared with the individual model outputs in the historical scenario for last 35 years (1981–2014). Therefore, MMM has been used for analysis. Statistically robust K–S test suggests a remarkable variation in the cumulative distribution of the precipitation across the NWH region at 95% confidence level in both of the future warming scenarios as compared with the historical time period. Furthermore, significant increase in the JJAS rainfall (~25–30%) and decrease in the DJF snowfall (~20–25%) has been observed for ssp585 scenario whereas no significant results are noted under ssp245 scenario. Remarkable variations in the surface temperature distribution, large scale wind circulation pattern and mesoscale hydrometeorological balance under the warmest scenario (SSP585) elucidate the reason behind the noteworthy changes in the precipitation dynamics reflected from the normalized precipitation index (NPI) and changes in annual cycle and therefore illustrates the possibility of more extreme precipitation years in future. The overall investigation reflects the possible effect of climate change over the NWH region pertaining to the dynamics of the South West Monsoon and Western Disturbances.

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Section: Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

Banerjee

Singh

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Positive values of CAPE (>0 J/kg) indicate an unstable atmosphere, suggesting an increased likelihood of hail and thunderstorm occurrences. CAPE is widely employed as one of the primary indicators for meteorological conditions conducive to energetic precipitation events, including lightning, wind shear, and hailstorms (Zawadzki et al 1981;Singh et al 2017). Moisture augmentation in convective regions, as demonstrated in Chou and Neelin's (2004), is responsible for sustaining positive CAPE values.…”

Section: Extreme Rainfall Integrated Water Vapor Transport and Convec...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Southerly Surge on Rainfall Pattern Over Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara during Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Relationship to MJO Condition

Trismidianto,

Satiadi,

Harjupa

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The impact of interaction SS with MJO on rainfall along Java Island to East Nusa Tenggara has been studied using daily rainfall observation data from 2140 weather observation stations, which are also equipped with GSMaP, OLR, and ERA5 data. There were 61 SS events found, 17 during active MJO and 44 in inactive MJO. Rainfall increases more in the western study area when the active MJO and more in the eastern study area when the inactive MJO is due to SS. SS reduces rainfall in the Jakarta region, regardless of the activity or inactivity of the MJO. SS causes extreme rainfall to only occur in a small part of certain areas, so it tends to significantly reduce the possibility of extreme rainfall. In the southern part of the IMC, SS predominates over MJO in supporting increased water vapor transport. Large-scale synoptic circulations like the monsoon, SS, and MJO can interact with local land-sea wind circulation to produce spatiotemporal variability in rainfall on Java Island. Rainfall mostly increases in the afternoon and decreases in the morning when SS occurs, whether there is MJO or not. Convective instability analysis indicates that SS increases precipitation, most likely by lowering CIN and raising VIMFC.

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“…Several experiments are conducted to analyse present climate circumstances and predict future circumstances (IPCC, 2021). The preceding stages of the CMIP have indeed been extremely valuable in understanding climate change and shaping climate policy (Aloysius et al, 2016;Forster et al, 2013;Knutti & Sedl aček, 2013;Li et al, 2014;Miao et al, 2014;Sillmann et al, 2013;Toreti & Naveau, 2015;Singh et al, 2017;Singh et al, 2018a;Singh et al, 2018b). But, over the last two decades of the CMIP, betterment in the precision of modelling the ISM and its temporal and spatial features have been minimal, with biases in many features such as the initiation, extent and inter seasonal variation (Sperber et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the characteristics of Indian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP6 models

Saha,

Singh

2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The present research is aimed at evaluating the climate coupled models with respect to the observational datasets for the investigation of the characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The monthly averaged historical simulations from 12 coupled climate models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are compared with the ground based observational data, satellite and reanalysis datasets for the study period of 1980–2014. This study uses these high‐resolution models to investigate monsoon features, onset and withdrawal dates, primarily focusing on individual model performances rather than highly documented multi‐model mean performance. Performance evaluation of the models suggests that sea surface temperature (SST) simulations by the models are in better agreement for the Arabian Sea than the Bay of Bengal with respect to the ERA5 reanalysis data sets. Further, inter‐model differences amongst the CMIP6 models in estimating the spatial distribution of various monsoon system variables during pre‐monsoon and monsoon seasons are noted which may be attributed to the different model components and varying physics configuration, nonetheless, models like NESM3 and INM‐CN5 are able to reproduce ISM pattern reasonably well. The annual precipitation cycle demonstrates a good agreement between most climate models and IMD data. Evolution of tropospheric temperature gradient (ΔTT) estimated from the CMIP6 models mimics the temporal pattern of the annual rainfall and therefore, is used to estimate the onset and withdrawal dates from CMIP6 models; however, high variability is noted amongst the CMIP6 models in retrieving the onset and withdrawal dates when compared with the IMD observations. Most of the models show a shorter rainy season except NorESM2‐MM. Overall our results suggest that the CMIP6 models can be used for the seasonal mean evaluation of monsoon system parameters and process‐based studies to improve our present understanding of the ISM system.

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Dust load and rainfall characteristics and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various warming scenarios

Cited by 22 publications

References 87 publications

An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

Impact of Southerly Surge on Rainfall Pattern Over Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara during Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Relationship to MJO Condition

Evaluation of the characteristics of Indian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP6 models

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