Dynamic Characteristic Analysis of HIV Mother to Child Transmission in China

Abstract

Objective to explore dynamic characteristics of the HIV mother to child transmission (MTCT) epidemic in China. Methods A deterministic dynamic transmission model was used to determine the effect of key parameters on the likely long-term trends of the HIV MTCT epidemic in China. Matlab 7.0 was used to develop the model. Results The number of the susceptibles (S), the transmission rate (β), and the screening proportion (α) of HIV positive pregnant women have the greatest impact on the HIV MTCT epidemic in China. The growth of the MTCT epidemic in China could not be controlled only by decreasing the MTCT transmission rate. The prevalence of HIV positive women should be reduced and more pregnant women should be tested for HIV. Conclusion Prevention of MTCT (PMTCT) should focus not only on the reduction of HIV transmission rates and incidences of HIV among women but also on the increase of HIV testing for pregnant women. The most cost-effective PMTCT means for China should be investigated in future studies.