2017
DOI: 10.47054/sd171-20149n
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Dynamic migration flow modeling

Abstract: The number of international migrants reached 244 million in 2015, including almost 20 million refugees. This number was further increased with the onset of the "Migrant Crisis" with a huge number of people abandoning conflict-torn countries of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc. Taking into account that serious problems related to human migrations have existed throughout history, in the previous decades various models have been developed for the analysis of this field. The most common models have been the Lee… Show more

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Cited by 4 publications
(5 citation statements)
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“…Systems Dynamics (SD) provides an alternate approach to understand nonlinear behaviors over time using stocks, flows, and feedback loops. Some SD models are inspired by the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiology models, 19 while others consider investments into peacekeeping, diplomacy, relief efforts, health services, food aid, border control, economic development, and immigration. 38 Schreyer et al 39 propose a continuous-space model based on a generalization of the Cahn-Hilliard equation, a partial differential equation used in continuum mechanics to describe a flow through a porous medium, and Sindik et al 40 use nonlinear dynamic analysis to simulate disequilibrium and chaos in macroeconomic systems.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Systems Dynamics (SD) provides an alternate approach to understand nonlinear behaviors over time using stocks, flows, and feedback loops. Some SD models are inspired by the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiology models, 19 while others consider investments into peacekeeping, diplomacy, relief efforts, health services, food aid, border control, economic development, and immigration. 38 Schreyer et al 39 propose a continuous-space model based on a generalization of the Cahn-Hilliard equation, a partial differential equation used in continuum mechanics to describe a flow through a porous medium, and Sindik et al 40 use nonlinear dynamic analysis to simulate disequilibrium and chaos in macroeconomic systems.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…More recently, several quantitative studies have emerged in response to the need for policymakers in host countries to facilitate planning the arrival of refugee populations, so that asylum claims are processed quickly and efficiently, and relief is provided promptly to those in need. 18 Ninković and Keković 19 classify migration models according to several criteria: they may be built on a macroscale (describing movements of an entire population in response to global factors, such as GDP, unemployment, or climate), or microscale (describing movements of individuals or families). Furthermore, models may be deterministic (predicting results unambiguously) or stochastic (predicting the likelihood of several outcomes), static (proving a snapshot in time) or dynamic (considering the interaction of variables that evolve in time).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…SD approach presents a model describing the major internal forces controlling the refugee flows, protection and asylum (Ninković et al, 2017). According to that SD approach became the basis of a major research effort that has influenced many government refugee policy decisions.…”
Section: System Dynamics In Policy Design and Analysismentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Generally, all variables in the model have the form of complex mathematical expressions that represent dependence of certain system functions on different factors and time (Ninković et al, 2017).…”
Section: System Dynamics Model and Causal Loop Diagram (Cld) In Refugee Policy Designmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This leads to mathematical models being described by differential equations of partial derivatives for continuous cases, or by difference equations or dynamic discrete systems for discrete models. Abstract approaches based on the principles of Physics, such as Newton's Law of Gravitation, give way to the so-called gravitational models [10]. Lee's models consider factors for and against migrants' movements between two areas and the corresponding occurrence probabilities.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%