The number of international migrants reached 244 million in 2015, including almost 20 million refugees. This number was further increased with the onset of the "Migrant Crisis" with a huge number of people abandoning conflict-torn countries of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc. Taking into account that serious problems related to human migrations have existed throughout history, in the previous decades various models have been developed for the analysis of this field. The most common models have been the Lee Model and the Gravity Model. The Lee model applies so-called pushpull factors for the analysis of decisions for migrating, whereas the Gravity model of migration is derived from the Newton's Law of Gravity, and is used to predict the degree of interaction between two spatial models. The Gravity model of migration is based upon the idea that the increase in interregional differences in socioeconomic values between locations of migration origin and destination may induce increased flow between them, whilst the increase in distance between two locations may cause the tendency of migration to decrease. Both models, among many others, are used mainly Security dialogues 150 for explanation of migration decision making and the migration management policies. The existing migration models based on System Dynamics (SD) are generally related to data analysis, policy making and migration management. The paper presents an SD model that analyses migrant/refugee flow, taking into account the following parameters: political decisions of the countries on migrant routes (political intervention), socioeconomic factors, porosity of state borders, criminal activities, public opinion, health, climate and environmental conditions etc. The model was built and simulations performed using the Vensim modeling tool, the results of which may be used for prediction purposes, creation migration management scenarios, as well as for the risk and resilience assessment of the migrant routes.

Securitization of the critical infrastructure as an important factor of national security has been among the aspects of wider changes in the security discourse since the end of the Cold War. The concept of critical infrastructure protection, initially focused on countering the terrorism threat, has been changing and expanding, from adopting the 'all-hazard approach', until the recent prevalence of the strategy of resilience in managing strategic security and operational risks. The sources of those risks are found mainly in climate-change induced natural hazards, as well as in global challenges of interconnection and interdependencies of critical infrastructure. The paper discusses the concepts of resilience and critical infrastructure, and then analyses the approaches to critical infrastructure protection and resilience in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. Analyzed are the official documents - strategies, laws and by-laws, reviews and guidelines produced by the governmental bodies of the mentioned countries, with the aim of clarification of the concept, as well as the country-specific variations in its operationalization.

In May 2014 Serbia and the region of Southeast Europe were hit by the heaviest rain in 120 years of recorded weather measurements, which caused catastrophic floods and landslides. Nine cities and thirty one municipalities declared the state of emergency on their territory. The paper analyses crisis communications of city and municipal emergency management headquarters with different target groups, their relations with the media and the “high politics”, as well as the “lessons learned” which may be applied to new emergency situations. We observed crisis communication on both operative (functionality of the equipment, issuing orders and instructions to citizens etc), and on symbolic level (the shaping of meaning of the event and of the subjects’ actions). A particular attention was paid to the communication problems such as insufficiently trained communicators, inadequate equipment, limited time and excessive expectations, as well as to the analysis of the media reporting that was often politicized and sensationalist.

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