Dynamic modeling of an early warning system for natural disasters

Abstract

Natural disasters have many consequences in terms of human lives, material, economic, and/or environmental damages. Among preventive and mitigation measures, it is recognized that early warning systems (EWS) are an effective and essential tool to minimize damages caused by natural disasters. Using the experience of CEMADEN (National Early Warning and Monitoring Centre of Natural Disasters) in Brazil, this paper aims to investigate, through a systems approach, what factors may interfere with the effectiveness of EWSs. A case study was developed based on interviews with experts from CEMADEN. Those interviews generated cognitive maps that translated the perceptions of the experts and were used to structure the problem and to support the construction of a systemic model. The model allowed the analysis of the EWS, identifying behaviors, as reinforcement and balancing loops, not always intuitive, to support better management and planning decisions to improve the system effectiveness.

Combined soft system methodology and agent‐based simulation for multi‐methodological modelling

“…vi. Improve the situations The first stage perceives the situation by using SSM tools like rich picture, CATWOE and root definition to change the messy situation to a structured problem by stakeholders' participation (stakeholders are internal and external individuals or groups that have the power to affect or may be affected by the decision [Ameyaw & Alfen, 2018;Franco & Montibeller, 2010;da Silva et al, 2020]). Rich picture is a better tool for showing the relationship in the situation than prose.…”

“…The proposed combined model consists of six stages that represents the process logic: Structuring the problem (perceived the situation) Conceptual modelling (purposeful activity model) Conceptual modelling assessment (comparison/structured discussion) Agent based modelling Model validation and verificationBuilding baseline and alternative models using step ii to v iteration (action). Improve the situations The first stage perceives the situation by using SSM tools like rich picture, CATWOE and root definition to change the messy situation to a structured problem by stakeholders' participation (stakeholders are internal and external individuals or groups that have the power to affect or may be affected by the decision [Ameyaw & Alfen, 2018; Franco & Montibeller, 2010; da Silva et al, 2020]). Rich picture is a better tool for showing the relationship in the situation than prose.…”

A simulation approach for collaborative humanitarian aid distribution management: the case of Bogotá city

“…They propose this methodology for improving risk understanding by system knowledge and develop it in a case of a flood threat for an electricity station. Also ( da Silva et al., 2020 ), are focused on risk mitigation to identify the main factors that affect the effectiveness of early warning systems through a qualitative system analysis with causal loops from the knowledge of experts. In our study, we also present causal loops to understand the interactions between the main variables in the aid delivery system and levels of collaboration.…”

Analysis of the employment status of Iranian public universities graduates and the governmental policy using system dynamics approach

“…Zoghi and Kim 25 analyzed different economic aspects of construction and demolition waste using a system dynamic model. Da Silva et al 26 developed a system dynamic model for warning natural disasters. Xu and Szmerekovsky 27 proposed a system dynamic model for energy savings in food industries.…”