Natural disasters have many consequences in terms of human lives, material, economic, and/or environmental damages. Among preventive and mitigation measures, it is recognized that early warning systems (EWS) are an effective and essential tool to minimize damages caused by natural disasters. Using the experience of CEMADEN (National Early Warning and Monitoring Centre of Natural Disasters) in Brazil, this paper aims to investigate, through a systems approach, what factors may interfere with the effectiveness of EWSs. A case study was developed based on interviews with experts from CEMADEN. Those interviews generated cognitive maps that translated the perceptions of the experts and were used to structure the problem and to support the construction of a systemic model. The model allowed the analysis of the EWS, identifying behaviors, as reinforcement and balancing loops, not always intuitive, to support better management and planning decisions to improve the system effectiveness.

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A fim de aumentar a eficiência na gestão de seus recursos institucionais, as instituições de ensino superior privado do Brasil vêm adotando métodos de gestão alinhadas com as melhores práticas de mercado. Assim sendo, a contratação de profissionais competentes e alinhados aos valores institucionais é de suma importância para manter a empresa competitiva e evitar os impactos negativos que contratações erradas podem trazer. Desta forma, este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar uma proposta para seleção de docentes que atendam às expectativas organizacionais, através da aplicação do método de estruturação de problemas Value Focused Thinking (VFT) para definição dos valores e objetivos dos decisores; e o método Multi-attribute value theory (MAVT) para seleção da alternativa mais consistente com os julgamentos de valor dos mesmos.

Supplier selection is a key decision in the procurement and purchasing processes. Both the choice of criteria and the evaluation of possible alternatives are critical steps in this decision-making process. One of the great challenges of private higher education institutions (PHEI) in Brazil in recent decades has been the attempt to institutionalize administrative practices applied in the business market. The primary goal of this is to optimize their business processes and achieve reduced risks and operational costs, thereby increasing their productivity and the quality of services. These initiatives aim to maintain self-sustaining and competitive institutions in an aggressive market that is constantly expanding. Therefore, a critical and professionalized look at their business processes has been one of the solutions for the PHEI to achieve their organizational goals. In this context, this paper proposes to formalize the decision-making process for the selection of suppliers through their systematization using cognitive maps to structure and identify the criteria that effectively present value during the partner selection of the decision-maker's procurement and purchasing department. The paper also proposes the subsequent prioritization of these criteria for evaluation and selection of potential suppliers by using the AHP multi-criteria method.