Dynamic Modelling of the Cuban Missile Crisis

Fraser, Niall M.; Hipel, Keith W.

doi:10.1177/073889428300600201

Cited by 23 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Fraser et al [28] apply five conflict analysis models to a possible nuclear confrontation between USA and USSR. The five conflict analysis models are normal form analysis from game theory, the extensive form of the game, metagame analysis [116], hypergame analysis [2,117], and the state transition model [25,118]. Their analysis determines that the hypergame analysis of conflicts is the best for modeling realworld conflicts.…”

Section: Said Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hypergame Theory: A Model for Conflict, Misperception, and Deception

2015

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When dealing with conflicts, game theory and decision theory can be used to model the interactions of the decision-makers. To date, game theory and decision theory have received considerable modeling focus, while hypergame theory has not. A metagame, known as a hypergame, occurs when one player does not know or fully understand all the strategies of a game. Hypergame theory extends the advantages of game theory by allowing a player to outmaneuver an opponent and obtaining a more preferred outcome with a higher utility. The ability to outmaneuver an opponent occurs in the hypergame because the different views (perception or deception) of opponents are captured in the model, through the incorporation of information unknown to other players (misperception or intentional deception). The hypergame model more accurately provides solutions for complex theoretic modeling of conflicts than those modeled by game theory and excels where perception or information differences exist between players. This paper explores the current research in hypergame theory and presents a broad overview of the historical literature on hypergame theory.

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Section: Said Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hypergame Theory: A Model for Conflict, Misperception, and Deception

2015

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“…Niall Fraser and Keith Hipel's [45] explanation of the Cuban missile crisis begins where Howard's leaves off. Like Howard's theory of metagames, Fraser and Hipel's analysis of options (or improved metagame) technique should be interpreted, at least in part, as a proto-theory of equilibrium selection.…”

Section: Fraser Hipel and The Analysis Of Options Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As its name suggests, Fraser and Hipel's [45] innovative methodology explores the stability characteristics of every feasible combination of strategy choices in a game and suggests a path leading to the selection of one equilibrium when multiple equilibria exist. Like Howard [34], their analysis of the Cuban crisis begins with the discovery of the missiles on October 16.…”

Section: Fraser Hipel and The Analysis Of Options Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These combinations are listed as columns in Table 1. To facilitate a computer implementation of their technique, Fraser and Hipel [45] convert each outcome into a binary number, that is, they are "decimalized". These numbers, which range from 0 to 11 and which are arrayed in the last row of Table, can also be considered numerical labels for the various outcomes.…”

Section: Fraser Hipel and The Analysis Of Options Techniquementioning

confidence: 99%

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A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis

Zagare

2014

Economies

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This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dynamic of the Cuban missile crisis, including, but not limited to, explanations developed in the style of Thomas Schelling, Nigel Howard and Steven Brams. All of the explanations were judged to be either incomplete or deficient in some way. Schelling's explanation is both empirically and theoretically inconsistent with the consensus interpretation of the crisis; Howard's with the contemporary understanding of rational strategic behavior; and Brams' with the full sweep of the events that define the crisis. The broad outlines of a more general explanation that addresses all of the foundational questions associated with the crisis within the confines of a single, integrated, game-theoretic model with incomplete information are laid out.

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“…In late 1956 a revolution to overthrow the Batista regime was initiated by Fidel Castro, and in 1959 he managed to take control of Cuba. The situation was made more unstable by the unsuccessful Bay of Pigs and a declaration by the Soviet Union of its willingness to aid Cuba in defending itself against the US [7]. Countries Soviet Union and America also belong to different models of international relation and political systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamic Framework of Decision-Making

2017

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This work explores dynamics existing in interactions between players. The dynamic system of games is a new attitude to modeling in which an event is modeled using several games. The model allows us to analyze the interplay capabilities and the feasibility objectives of each player after a conflict with other players objectives and capabilities. As an application we model relations between Soviet Union and America after World War II to October 1962, by using the dynamic system of games. The dynamic system of games as an important insight clearly has significant implications for modeling strategic interactions in which player pursue goals for increasing their personal interests. In addition, we introduce a new game in which there is a dilemma which this dilemma occurs in most societies. We investigate depends on the claim that each player in this dilemma is hyper-rational. In concept of hyper-rational, the player thinks about profit or loss of other actors in addition to his personal profit or loss and then will choose an action which is desirable to him. In this dilemma, a weak trust has been created between players, but it is fragile.

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Dynamic Modelling of the Cuban Missile Crisis

Cited by 23 publications

References 10 publications

Hypergame Theory: A Model for Conflict, Misperception, and Deception

Hypergame Theory: A Model for Conflict, Misperception, and Deception

A Game-Theoretic History of the Cuban Missile Crisis

The Dynamic Framework of Decision-Making

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