Dynamic Modelling of the Impact of Climate Change and Power Flow Management Options using STELLA: Application to the Steephill Falls Reservoir, Ontario, Canada

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic modelling framework for evaluating the impact of climate change and flow management options on a hydroelectric power reservoir. The model couples the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall-runoff model to a generic reservoir routing model. The efficacy of the model was tested on the Steephill Falls hydropower facility located in the Magpie River watershed in Northern Ontario. Both the impact of climate change and future energy demands were evaluated. Using a statistical downscaling approach, future climate under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B and A2 emission scenarios was projected from the Canadian Global Circulation Model 3 (CGCM3). Both scenarios suggest a significantly increasing trend in air temperature (p B 0.001) corresponding to a 1.78C increase by the middle of the century and a 2.98C to 3.78C increase by the end of the century relative to the baseline period (1970Á2000). The model performed well in simulating the inter-annual seasonal dynamics of the reservoir. Plausible climate-induced increase in runoff input into the reservoir might be counterbalanced by increased drawdown caused by increasing energy demands and water users, resulting in increased pressure to adjust lower reservoir rule curves, in-stream flow requirements downstream, or a combination of both.

Adjacent catchments with similar patterns of land use and climate have markedly different dissolved organic carbon concentration and runoff dynamics

“…These stations are operated by Environment Canada (EC). In the White Creek catchment where flow data were lacking, a version of the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall‐runoff model (Oni et al ., ) was used to simulate river flow conditions in the catchment (Oni et al ., , ). Long‐term pattern of precipitation, specific runoff and runoff ratio (Figure ) were examined using hydrological year (1 June–13 May of the following year).…”

System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Behaviour of the Lim Reservoir System (Serbia) under Changing Climate Conditions

“…Water resources management relies on the application of a systems approach to deal with complex problems [1]. This approach uses a systems analysis in finding solutions for complex water problems trying to balance between conflicting social, ecological and economic concerns that affect the decision-making process [2]. This study uses one of the two main techniques of systems analysis -simulation.…”

“…11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 21four graphical objects to represent a complex system structure: (1) Stocks,(2) flows, (3) auxiliary variables and (4) arrows. The reservoirs of the Lim water system are modelled as stocks because they represent state variables accumulating over time.…”

Conceptual Modelling to Assess Hydrological Impacts and Evaluate Environmental Flow Scenarios in Montane River Systems Regulated for Hydropower

“…The simplest approach is to manually couple rainfall-run-off models to reservoir models (e.g. Oni et al, 2012). However, models that link the natural catchment behaviour directly with regulated water management are better in dealing with appropriate calibration and water balance and identifying dominant processes (Welsh et al, 2013).…”

“…In the HBV-96 version, lakes or impoundments at the outlet of a subcatchment are simulated through level pool routing (Lindström et al, 1997), although there are no options for water transfers or variable releases following operating rules. Coupled to a reservoir model, HBV was previously used offline for rainfall-run-off simulations in a regulated system (Oni et al, 2012).…”