Dynamic Risk Assessment in Sexual Offenders Using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007

Eher, Reinhard; Matthes, A.; Schilling, Frank; Haubner-MacLean, Tanja; Rettenberger, Martin

doi:10.1177/1079063211403164

Cited by 104 publications

(114 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Although ROC analyses have some important improvements in comparison with correlation coefficients, they also have some methodological shortcomings (Eher et al, 2012). Therefore, some authors propose the use of ORs calculated by using logistic regression analyses for reporting predictive accuracy (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 2000).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sexual Offender Recidivism Among a Population-Based Prison Sample

Rettenberger

Briken

Turner

et al. 2014

Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol

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The present study examines recidivism rates in sexual offenders using officially registered reconvictions in a representative data set of N = 1,115 male sexual offenders from Austria. In general, results indicate that most sexual offenders do not reoffend sexually after release from prison. More detailed, within the first 5 years after release, the sexual recidivism rate was 6% for the total sample, 4% for the rapist subgroup, and 8% for the child molester subgroup. The findings confirmed previous studies about sex offender recidivism which have shown that first-time sexual offenders are significantly less likely to sexually reoffend than those with previous sexual convictions. With regard to the relationship between age and sexual recidivism, the results challenged the traditional assumption of a clear linear function between age and recidivism. Taken together, compared with previous studies, the recidivism rates found in the present investigation are substantially lower than previous research has indicated.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sexual Offender Recidivism Among a Population-Based Prison Sample

Rettenberger

Briken

Turner

et al. 2014

Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol

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“…To test Rice's (2003, 2007) hypothesis that the age of onset of criminality is more important than age at the time of release, the predictive influence of age at first offense was examined by removing the age item from the Static-99 and by testing whether age at first offense would perform better than age at the time of release. The data of all participants (N = 1,077) were registered between October 2001 and August 2007 at the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in the Austrian Prison System, a department within the Austrian Ministry of Justice (Eher, Matthes, Schilling, Haubner-MacLean, & Rettenberger, 2012). In brief, since 2001, every sexual offender sentenced to an unconditional prison term by an Austrian court because of a sexually motivated offense has to be reported to the FECVSO.…”

Section: The Current Study Research Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Contribution of Age to the Static-99 Risk Assessment in a Population-based Prison Sample of Sexual Offenders

Rettenberger

Haubner-MacLean²,

Eher

2013

Criminal Justice and Behavior

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The Static-99 is the actuarial risk assessment instrument most commonly used and best validated for sexual offenders. Some research has indicated that the original version of the instrument does not sufficiently cover the influence of age-related decreases in recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Therefore, an age-corrected version, the Static-99R, has been proposed. It includes four age categories compared with only two in the original instrument. The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of several age-related variables on the predictive accuracy of the german version of the Static-99 using a population-based sample of prison-released sexual offenders (N = 1,077). The results indicated that-for the prediction of sexual reoffenses in a population-based prison sample-the original Static-99 performed better than the age-corrected Static-99R. Theoretical and empirical implications for research as well as recommendations for applied risk assessment settings are discussed. D espite substantial research effort during the last 20 years, the assessment of risk in sexual offenders is still one of the most difficult challenges in the field of forensic psychology and psychiatry. Different assessment methods and scientific approaches have been described aiming to improve risk assessment. As in other areas of psychological prediction, practice, and research, empirical results indicate that structured and standardized AuThorS' noTe: We would like to thank R. Karl Hanson, Marnie Rice, and Leslie Helmus for their very helpful comments in the preparation of this article. The current research project was conducted in accordance with the legal and ethical demands of the Austrian Department of Justice and the national Data Protection Act.

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“…Darüber hinaus sollte im besten Fall auch empirisches Wissen über die mögliche Beeinflussung sowie über die Wirksamkeit dieser Beeinflussung auf das jeweilige Ereignis zur Verfügung stehen [8,27,29]. in letzter Konsequenz kann es dem forensischen Praktiker allein schon per definitionem nicht um die Richtigkeit der Prognose gehen, sondern darum auf professionelle Weise mitzuhelfen, den rückfall zu vermeiden bzw.…”

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Ermittlung des relativen und absoluten Rückfallrisikos mithilfe des Static-99 in einer deutschsprachigen Population entlassener Sexualstraftäter

Eher

Schilling

Haubner-MacLean

et al. 2011

Forens Psychiatr Psychol Kriminol

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Zusammenfassung an 1142 aus der Strafhaft entlassenen Sexualstraftätern aus dem österreichischen Strafvollzug wurde prospektiv das statistisch-aktuarische Prognoseinstrument Static-99 angewandt. neben den üblichen Validitätsindizes, die für die Vorhersage des sexuell motivierten rückfalls je nach tätergruppe beim Wert der "area under the curve" (aUC) zwischen 0,69 und 0,77 lagen, wurden absolute (beobachtete und mittels logistischer regression errechnete) und relative risikoparameter ("hazard ratio") ermittelt. Der tätertypus erwies sich dabei als eine über die Vorhersagekraft des Static-99 hinaus relevante Variable, nicht allerdings - und das im gegensatz zu jüngeren internationalen Daten -das täteralter. relative und absolute risikomaße für die deutschsprachige Version des Static-99 werden angegeben; die Verwendung eigener normwerte für die gruppe der sexuellen Kindesmissbrauchstäter wird empfohlen.Schlüsselwörter Kriminalprognose · relatives und absolutes risiko · Sexualstraftäter · rückfall · Static-99 Assessment of the relative and absolute risk of recidivism using Static-99 in a German-speaking population of released sexual offendersAbstract the predictive accuracy of the german version of Static-99 was examined prospectively in a sample of 1,142 sexual offenders released from austrian prisons. the Static-99 was found to have moderate to good validity for the prediction of sexual recidivism, depending on the offender subsample (area under the curve, AUC = 0.69 − 0,77). the absolute and relative risk estimates for Static-99 were also calculated. Offender type but not age was found to incrementally add to the predictive accuracy of Static-99. therefore, absolute recidivism rates are provided separately for the child molester subgroup. at this point in time it is recommended that Static-99 should be used rather than Static-99r for the german version of Static-99 when assessing the risk of imprisoned sexual offenders.Keywords risk assessment · absolute and relative risk · Sexual offenders · recidivism · Static-99 Einleitung Statistisch-aktuarische (oder statistisch-nomothetische) Kriminalprognosemethoden werden heute in der forensischen Praxis weitverbreitet angewendet. insbesondere bei der einschätzung der gefährlichkeit und rückfallgefahr von Sexualstraftätern spielen sie mittlerweile eine herausragende rolle [13,18]. Sowohl international also auch im deutschsprachigen bereich hat sich mit dem Static-99 ein statistisch-aktuarisches Prognoseinstrument für Sexualstraftäter etabliert, das bei vielen gefährlichkeitsbezogenen

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Dynamic Risk Assessment in Sexual Offenders Using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007

Cited by 104 publications

References 39 publications

Sexual Offender Recidivism Among a Population-Based Prison Sample

Sexual Offender Recidivism Among a Population-Based Prison Sample

The Contribution of Age to the Static-99 Risk Assessment in a Population-based Prison Sample of Sexual Offenders

Ermittlung des relativen und absoluten Rückfallrisikos mithilfe des Static-99 in einer deutschsprachigen Population entlassener Sexualstraftäter

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