Sexual Offender Recidivism Among a Population-Based Prison Sample

Rettenberger, Martin; Briken, Peer; Turner, Daniel; Eher, Reinhard

doi:10.1177/0306624x13516732

Cited by 46 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Thus, the reduction in one motivational force (e.g., sexual hormones) could still leave sexual delinquent behaviour motivated by a range of other forces. Even if these considerations are far beyond the scope of the present study, it becomes clear that also previous studies found similar result patterns when using representative prison samples of sexual offenders (Rettenberger, Briken, Turner, & Eher, 2015;Thornton, 2006).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

The predictive and incremental validity of the German adaptation of the Static‐2002 in a sexual offender sample released from the prison system

Martens

Rettenberger

Eher

2015

Legal Criminol Psychol

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Purpose The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the German adaptation of the Static‐2002 and to compare it with the results of the Static‐99. Method The predictive validity of Static‐2002 was investigated in a sample of n = 452 sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System. The instrument was coded retrospectively using file information. Afterwards, the predictive estimates of the Static‐2002 were related to officially documented reconviction data. Results The Static‐2002 was found to have large effect sizes for predicting sexual, violent, and general recidivism (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .78, .75, .75, respectively) for the total offender sample. For the general sexual offender sample, it did not predict reoffence significantly better than the Static‐99 ([AUC] = .77, .72, and .72, respectively). However, the Static‐2002 was found to perform better in the child molesters subsample (AUC = .83, .74, .75, respectively) than in rapists (AUC = .66, .72, .73, respectively), even though these differences did not reach statistical significance. The Static‐2002 was found to have incremental predictive validity beyond the Static‐99, but only for general and not for sexual or violent recidivism. Conclusions Although a replacement of the Static‐99 by the Static‐2002 cannot be recommended, it has to be emphasized that the Static‐2002 yielded large effect sizes in predicting general, violent, and sexual recidivism and, therefore, nevertheless represents an excellent measure for capturing the reoffence risk of sexual offenders.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

The predictive and incremental validity of the German adaptation of the Static‐2002 in a sexual offender sample released from the prison system

Martens

Rettenberger

Eher

2015

Legal Criminol Psychol

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“…By way of exception, the group of over-50s who scored in the highest risk band exhibited a high rate of sexual recidivism (40.0%); however, it is important to note this group was small in numbers (n = 20, eight of whom were reconvicted). Other studies (e.g., Rettenberger, Briken, Turner, & Eher, 2015;Thornton, 2006) have reported more complex relationships between age and sexual recidivism as opposed to a simple linear decline, though nonetheless found substantially reduced rates after the age of 60.…”

Section: Age and Desistence From Sexual Violence Across The Lifespanmentioning

confidence: 75%

Predictive Properties of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version as a Function of Age

et al. 2020

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The present study examined the discrimination and calibration properties of Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO) risk and change scores for sexual and violent recidivism as a function of age at release, on a combined sample of 1,287 men who had attended sexual offense-specific treatment services. The key aim was to examine to what extent VRS-SO scores can accurately discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among older cohorts, and if the existing age-related adjustments in the instrument adequately correct for increasing age. VRS-SO risk and change scores showed consistent properties of discrimination for sexual recidivism across the age cohorts, via area under the curve and Cox regression survival analysis, as demonstrated through fixed effects meta-analysis. Calibration analyses, employing logistic regression, demonstrated that age at release was consistently incrementally predictive of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for individual differences on static and dynamic risk factors. E/O index analyses demonstrated that predicted rates of sexual recidivism from VRS-SO scores, particularly when employed with Static-99R, were not significantly different from those observed among age cohorts; however, calibration was weaker for general violence. Implications for use of the VRS-SO in sexual recidivism risk assessment with older offenders are discussed.

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“…This enabled us to characterize two subgroups of MDSOs, one with psychotic disorders and one without. Most studies on general sex offenders do not include offenders with psychotic disorders, or do not specifically discuss this subgroup (3,10,24,25). Even in studies on MDSOs, data on offenders with psychotic disorders are rarely consistent (12,26‐31).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 24‐Year Follow‐up Study on Recidivism in Male Mentally Disordered Sexual Offenders With and Without Psychotic Disorders

Baudin

Nilsson

Wallinius

et al. 2020

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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There is a lack of knowledge on mentally disordered sex offenders (MDSOs) targeting adult victims, especially regarding recidivism patterns and the specific subgroup with psychiatric disorders. This paper presents index offense data, clinical data, and recidivism patterns over up to 24 years in a cohort of 146 MDSOs, with and without psychotic disorders, sentenced in Sweden between 1993 and 1997. At the time of the offense, all offenders were affected by clinical, developmental, and criminal history factors. MDSOs with psychotic disorders only marginally differed from those without, the former being less likely to have been institutionalized during childhood, intoxicated during the index offense, or diagnosed with a personality disorder, substance use disorder, or paraphilic disorder. In the cohort, 3.4% of the MDSOs were reconvicted for a new sex offense over 2 years, 9.6% over 5 years, 13.0% over 10 years, and 17.1% over the entire follow‐up period of 24 years. In MDSOs with psychotic disorders, no subjects were reconvicted during the first 2 years, while 2.6% were reconvicted over 5 years, 5.3% over 10 years, and 7.9% over 24 years. Recidivism rates for violent and general reoffenses were 39.0% and 37.7%, respectively, for the cohort of MDSOs, and subjects with psychotic disorders reoffended significantly later in general offenses. In conclusion, MDSOs with psychotic disorders showed the same recidivism pattern as MDSOs without psychotic disorders. Furthermore, recidivism research may preferably focus on follow‐up periods of 5–10 years since most offenders appear to recidivate within this timeframe.

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Sexual Offender Recidivism Among a Population-Based Prison Sample

Cited by 46 publications

References 28 publications

The predictive and incremental validity of the German adaptation of the Static‐2002 in a sexual offender sample released from the prison system

The predictive and incremental validity of the German adaptation of the Static‐2002 in a sexual offender sample released from the prison system

Predictive Properties of the Violence Risk Scale–Sexual Offense Version as a Function of Age

A 24‐Year Follow‐up Study on Recidivism in Male Mentally Disordered Sexual Offenders With and Without Psychotic Disorders

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