The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years post-release. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism post-release and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature.

Data from a sexual offender treatment program operated by the Correctional Service of Canada at the Regional Psychiatric Center (Saskatoon) supported the conclusion that cognitive behavioral treatment can reduce sexual offense recidivism. The study compared 296 treated and 283 untreated offenders followed for a mean of 6 years after their release. An untreated comparison subject was located for each treated offender on three dimensions: (a) age at index offense, (b) date of index offense, and (c) prior criminal history. Data were analyzed using tests of proportion, survival analysis, and analysis of offender Criminal Career Profiles. Over a mean follow-up period of almost 6 years, convictions for new sexual offenses among treated offenders were 14.5% versus 33.2% for untreated offenders. During the follow-up period, 48% of treated offenders remained out of prison compared to 28.3% of untreated offenders. Time series comparisons of treated and comparison samples also showed that treated men reoffended at significantly lower rates after 10 years. A Criminal Career Profile (CCP) was constructed by taking the Age at First Conviction and plotting the offender's successive lengths of time free against time incarcerated. Pre- and posttreatment slopes of the CCP were lower for both groups posttreatment; however, the degree of change was significantly greater for the treated group, indicating a greater reduction in criminal activity among these offenders. Taken together, the results of all three analytic techniques supported the efficacy of appropriate correctional treatment for effective reduction of recidivism.

Follow-up data are reported on 89 sexual offenders treated at the Regional Treatment Centre (Ontario) and 89 untreated sexual offenders matched for pretreatment risk. The average time at risk was 9.9 years. It was found that the treated group had a sexual recidivism rate of 23.6%, whereas the untreated group had a sexual recidivism rate of 51.7% (p <.0001). The groups also differed significantly on nonsexual recidivism. Data on a new analytic technique, the Criminal Career Profile, are also reported. Results are discussed with reference to the recent outcome study of Quinsey, Khanna, and Malcolm.

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

The results are consistent with the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk and suggest that risk-relevant changes associated with participation in sexual offender treatment are linked to reductions in sexual offender recidivism.